School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 2024 Oct;132(10):106001. doi: 10.1289/EHP14300. Epub 2024 Oct 15.
Heat is known to affect many health outcomes, but more evidence is needed on the impact of rising temperatures on crime and/or violence.
We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis regarding the influence of hot temperatures on crime and/or violence.
In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we evaluated the relationship between increase in temperature and crime and/or violence for studies across the world and generated overall estimates. We searched MEDLINE and Web of Science for articles from the available database start year (1946 and 1891, respectively) to 6 November 2023 and manually reviewed reference lists of identified articles. Two investigators independently reviewed the abstracts and full-text articles to identify and summarize studies that analyzed the relationship between increasing temperature and crime, violence, or both and met eligibility criteria. PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were used to extract information from included articles. Some study results were combined using a profile likelihood random-effects model for meta-analysis for a subset of outcomes: violent crime (assault, homicide), property crime (theft, burglary), and sexual crime (sexual assault, rape). This review is registered at PROSPERO, CRD42023417295.
We screened 16,634 studies with 83 meeting the inclusion criteria. Higher temperatures were significantly associated with crime, violence, or both. A 10°C (18°F) increase in short-term mean temperature exposure was associated with a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7%, 12%] increase in the risk of violent crime (; eight studies). Studies had differing definitions of crime and/or violence, exposure assessment methods, and confounder assessments.
Our findings summarize the evidence supporting the association between elevated temperatures, crime, and violence, particularly for violent crimes. Associations for some categories of crime and/or violence, such as property crimes, were inconsistent. Future research should employ larger spatial/temporal scales, consistent crime and violence definitions, advanced modeling strategies, and different populations and locations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14300.
热已知会影响许多健康结果，但需要更多证据表明气温升高对犯罪和/或暴力的影响。
我们进行了一项系统评价和荟萃分析，研究高温对犯罪和/或暴力的影响。
在这项系统评价和荟萃分析中，我们评估了全球各地的研究中温度升高与犯罪和/或暴力之间的关系，并得出了总体估计值。我们在 MEDLINE 和 Web of Science 中检索了从可用数据库开始年份（分别为 1946 年和 1891 年）到 2023 年 11 月 6 日的文章，并手动审查了已确定文章的参考文献列表。两名调查员独立审查了摘要和全文文章，以确定和总结分析温度升高与犯罪、暴力或两者之间关系并符合纳入标准的研究。采用 PRISMA（系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目）指南从纳入文章中提取信息。对于一些研究结果，我们使用似然随机效应模型对亚组结果进行了合并分析：暴力犯罪（攻击、杀人）、财产犯罪（盗窃、入室盗窃）和性犯罪（性侵犯、强奸）。本综述在 PROSPERO 注册，CRD42023417295。
我们筛选了 16634 篇研究，其中 83 篇符合纳入标准。较高的温度与犯罪、暴力或两者都显著相关。短期平均温度暴露增加 10°C（18°F），与暴力犯罪风险增加 9%[95%置信区间（CI）：7%，12%]相关（八项研究）。研究对犯罪和/或暴力、暴露评估方法和混杂因素评估有不同的定义。
我们的研究结果总结了支持气温升高与犯罪和暴力之间关联的证据，特别是对于暴力犯罪。一些犯罪和/或暴力类别的关联，如财产犯罪，并不一致。未来的研究应该采用更大的空间/时间尺度、一致的犯罪和暴力定义、先进的建模策略以及不同的人群和地点。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14300.
