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[基于中国陕西省镇安县油松年轮重建165年3 - 4月平均最高气温]

[Reconstruction of the March-April average maximum air temperature over 165 years based on Pinus tabuliformis tree-rings of Zhen'an County, Shaanxi Province, China].

作者信息

Hua Ya-Wei, Zhang Hong-Juan, Liu Kang

机构信息

College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest Univer-sity/Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China.

出版信息

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2020 Feb;31(2):381-387. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202002.026.

DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202002.026
PMID:32476329
Abstract

We used tree rings of Pinus tabuliformis sampled in the Muwang National Forest Park to establish a standardized chronology (STD) and calculated the correlation coefficients between the standardized chronology and climatic factors of Zhen'an meteorological station. With linear regression analysis, we reconstructed the March-April mean maximum temperature of Zhen'an over 165 years from 1853 to 2017. The highest correlation coefficient was observed between the standardized chronology and the March-April mean maximum temperature (r=0.596, n=60, P<0.01). The variance interpretation of the March-April mean maximum temperature reconstruction function was 33.2%, and the reconstruction function and results were credible and reliable. Warm years occurred 25 times and cold years occurred 29 times in the reconstruction sequence. The warm years were more accompanied by flood events, while the cold years were accompanied by more drought events. Temperature fluctuated obviously in the reconstruction sequence, with two cold periods (1902-1917 and 1953-2000) and four warm periods (1868-1892, 1917-1937, 1941-1953 and 2001-2012). The obvious periodic variations of 2-7, 8-15, 18-28, 75-96, and 100-125 years were found in the reconstruction sequence, in which the quasi-113, 88 and 22 years were the first, second and third main periods, respectively. These variations might potentially be the fingerprints of some climate change forces such as solar activity, monsoon and EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity.

摘要

我们利用在木王国家森林公园采集的油松年轮建立了标准化年表(STD),并计算了该标准化年表与镇安气象站气候因子之间的相关系数。通过线性回归分析,我们重建了镇安1853年至2017年165年间3 - 4月的平均最高气温。标准化年表与3 - 4月平均最高气温之间的相关系数最高(r = 0.596,n = 60,P<0.01)。3 - 4月平均最高气温重建函数的方差解释率为33.2%,重建函数及结果可信可靠。重建序列中暖年出现25次,冷年出现29次。暖年多伴随洪水事件,冷年则伴随更多干旱事件。重建序列中气温波动明显,有两个冷期(1902 - 1917年和1953 - 2000年)和四个暖期(1868 - 1892年、1917 - 1937年、1941 - 1953年和2001 - 2012年)。在重建序列中发现了2 - 7年、8 - 15年、18 - 28年、75 - 96年和100 - 125年的明显周期性变化,其中准113年、88年和22年分别为第一、第二和第三主周期。这些变化可能是太阳活动、季风和厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动(ENSO)活动等一些气候变化力量的印记。

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