Zeng Ai-Cong, Cai Qi-Jun, Su Zhang-Wen, Guo Xin-Bin, Jin Quan-Feng, Guo Fu-Tao
College of Forestry, Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
Collaborative Innovation Center of Soil and Water Conservation in Red Soil Region of the Cross-Strait, Fuzhou 350002, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2020 Feb;31(2):399-406. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202002.015.
Understanding the changes and driving factors of forest fire can provide scientific basis for prevention and management of forest fire. In this study, we analyzed the changes and driving factors of forest fire in Zhejiang Province during 2001-2016 based on trend analysis and Logistic regression model with the MODIS satellite fire point data combined with meteorological (daily ave-rage wind speed, daily average temperature, daily relative humidity, daily temperature difference, daily cumulative precipitation), human activities (distance from road, distance from railway, distance from resident, population, per capita GDP), topographic and vegetation factors (elevation, slope, vegetation coverage). The results showed that the number of forest fires in spring and summer had significantly increased, while the forest fires in the autumn and winter increased first and then decreased. Forest fire in autumn significantly declined. The four seasons' fire occurrence prediction models had good prediction accuracy, reaching 75.8% (spring), 79.1% (summer), 74.7% (autumn) and 79.6% (winter). The meteorological, human activity, topographic and vegetation factors significantly affected fire occurrence in spring and summer, while meteorological factors were the main fire drivers in autumn and winter in Zhejiang. The focus of forest fire management should be on human activities. Fire prevention campaign should be done in spring and summer when high-risk forest fires were scattered in the study area. In autumn and winter, observatory and monitoring equipment could be built to facilitate fire management and detect in the area of high fire risk that was concentrated in the southwest region.
了解森林火灾的变化及驱动因素可为森林火灾的预防和管理提供科学依据。在本研究中，我们基于趋势分析和逻辑回归模型，利用MODIS卫星火点数据并结合气象因素（日平均风速、日平均气温、日相对湿度、日温差、日累计降水量）、人类活动因素（与道路的距离、与铁路的距离、与居民点的距离、人口、人均国内生产总值）、地形和植被因素（海拔、坡度、植被覆盖度），分析了2001 - 2016年浙江省森林火灾的变化及驱动因素。结果表明，春夏季森林火灾次数显著增加，秋冬季森林火灾先增加后减少，秋季森林火灾显著下降。四季火灾发生预测模型具有良好的预测精度，春季为75.8%、夏季为79.1%、秋季为74.7%、冬季为79.6%。气象、人类活动、地形和植被因素对春夏季火灾发生有显著影响，而气象因素是浙江秋冬季火灾的主要驱动因素。森林火灾管理的重点应放在人类活动上。在春夏季应开展防火活动，此时研究区域内高风险森林火灾较为分散。在秋冬季，可建设观测和监测设备，以便于火灾管理并在火灾高风险集中的西南地区进行探测。
