Escalera-Antezana Juan Pablo, Lizon-Ferrufino Nicolas Freddy, Maldonado-Alanoca Americo, Alarcon-De-la-Vega Gricel, Alvarado-Arnez Lucia Elena, Balderrama-Saavedra Maria Alejandra, Bonilla-Aldana D Katterine, Rodriguez-Morales Alfonso J
National Responsible for Telehealth Program, Ministry of Health, La Paz, Bolivia; Universidad Privada Franz Tamayo/UNIFRANZ, Cochabamba, Bolivia.
Interim Direction Epidemiology Unit, Ministry of Health, La Paz, Bolivia.
Infez Med. 2020 Jun 1;28(2):238-242.
The present study is aimed to assess the risk factors for mortality in the first 107 rRT-PCR confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Bolivia. For this observational, retrospective and cross-sectional study, the epidemiological data records were collected from the Hospitals and the Ministry of Health of Bolivia, obtaining the clinical and epidemiological data of the COVID-19 cases that were laboratory-diagnosed during March 2-29, 2020. Samples were tested by rRT-PCR to SARS-CoV-2 at the Laboratory of the National Center of Tropical Diseases (CENETROP), following the protocol Charite, Berlin, Germany. The odds ratio (OR) with respective 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for mortality as dependent variable was calculated. When we comparatively analyzed survivors and non-survivors in this first group of 107 cases in Bolivia, we found that at bivariate analyses, age (±60 years old), hypertension, chronic heart failure, diabetes, and obesity, as well as the requirement of ICU, were significantly exposure variables associated with death. At the multivariate analysis (logistic regression), two variables remained significantly associated, age, ±60 years-old (OR=9.4, 95%CI 1.8-104.1) and hypertension (OR=3.3, 95%CI 1.3-6.3). As expected, age and comorbidities, particularly hypertension, were independent risk factors for mortality in Bolivia in the first 107 cases group. More further studies are required to better define risk factors and preventive measures related to COVID-19 in this and other Latin American countries.
本研究旨在评估玻利维亚107例经逆转录聚合酶链反应（rRT-PCR）确诊的新型冠状病毒肺炎（SARS-CoV-2）感染病例的死亡风险因素。对于这项观察性、回顾性和横断面研究，从玻利维亚的医院和卫生部收集了流行病学数据记录，获取了2020年3月2日至29日期间实验室确诊的新冠肺炎病例的临床和流行病学数据。样本在国家热带病中心（CENETROP）实验室按照德国柏林夏里特医院的方案进行rRT-PCR检测以检测新型冠状病毒。计算以死亡率为因变量的优势比（OR）及其相应的95%置信区间（95%CI）。当我们对玻利维亚这首批107例病例中的幸存者和非幸存者进行比较分析时，我们发现在双变量分析中，年龄（±60岁）、高血压、慢性心力衰竭、糖尿病和肥胖，以及重症监护病房（ICU）需求，是与死亡显著相关的暴露变量。在多变量分析（逻辑回归）中，有两个变量仍然显著相关，即年龄±60岁（OR=9.4，95%CI 1.8 - 104.1）和高血压（OR=3.3，95%CI 1.3 - 6.3）。不出所料，年龄和合并症，尤其是高血压，是玻利维亚首批107例病例组中死亡的独立风险因素。需要更多进一步的研究来更好地确定与该地区以及其他拉丁美洲国家新冠肺炎相关的风险因素和预防措施。
