Quantification of Medical Risk on the International Space Station Using the Integrated Medical Model.

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a quantified, evidence-based decision support tool developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to assist in the assessment of the medical risk of human spaceflight missions. The IMM utilizes a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to simulate potential in-flight medical events and resultant health and mission outcomes. The IMM has been utilized to estimate the medical risk associated with International Space Station (ISS) missions. The IMM outputs that have been most informative to the ISS program are the probabilities of evacuation (pEVAC) and loss of crew life (pLOCL). These outputs are incorporated into a continuously maintained ISS PRA model so that its quantification of total ISS mission risk includes the medical risk. Results of this analysis revealed that the forecasted risk values of pEVAC and pLOCL due to medical events were improved by using the IMM with the ISS PRA model instead of using data from prior sources in which these values were underestimated. The IMM provides an evidence-based PRA approach to directly communicate and integrate medical risk with other ISS risks. A comparison of IMM outputs of pEVAC and pLOCL to empirical spaceflight data and analog population data revealed that IMM outputs were comparable with actual experience. With appropriate outcome context, these findings increase subject matter expert confidence in the accuracy of IMM risk estimates. IMM outputs provide quantifiable objective estimates of medical risk that can be used to inform mission risk assessments and to optimize crew health.