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将关键干预时间与快速下降的有效繁殖数联系起来,以量化针对 COVID-19 的经验教训。

Linking key intervention timings to rapid declining effective reproduction number to quantify lessons against COVID-19.

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.

Key Laboratory of Modern Toxicology of Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.

出版信息

Front Med. 2020 Oct;14(5):623-629. doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0788-3. Epub 2020 Jun 4.

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently under a global pandemic trend. The efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be assessed. In this study, the efficiency of prevention and control measures in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan was assessed, and the COVID-19 epidemic tendency among these countries was compared. Results showed that the effective reproduction number(Re) in Wuhan, China increased almost exponentially, reaching a maximum of 3.98 before a lockdown and rapidly decreased to below 1 due to containment and mitigation strategies of the Chinese government. The Re in Italy declined at a slower pace than that in China after the implementation of prevention and control measures. The Re in Iran showed a certain decline after the establishment of a national epidemic control command, and an evident stationary phase occurred because the best window period for the prevention and control of the epidemic was missed. The epidemic in Japan and South Korea reoccurred several times with the Re fluctuating greatly. The epidemic has hardly rebounded in China due to the implementation of prevention and control strategies and the effective enforcement of policies. Other countries suffering from the epidemic could learn from the Chinese experience in containing COVID-19.

摘要

2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)目前处于全球大流行趋势。应评估遏制措施的效率和典型国家的流行趋势。在这项研究中,评估了中国、意大利、伊朗、韩国和日本的预防和控制措施的效率,并比较了这些国家的 COVID-19 流行趋势。结果表明,中国武汉的有效繁殖数(Re)几乎呈指数增长,在封锁前达到 3.98 的最大值,由于中国政府的遏制和缓解策略,迅速下降到 1 以下。在实施预防和控制措施后,意大利的 Re 下降速度比中国慢。在建立国家疫情防控指挥机构后,伊朗的 Re 显示出一定程度的下降,并且由于错过了最佳的疫情防控窗口期,出现了明显的静止阶段。日本和韩国的疫情多次复发,Re 波动较大。由于实施了防控策略和有效执行政策,中国的疫情几乎没有反弹。其他受疫情影响的国家可以借鉴中国控制 COVID-19 的经验。

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