School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400030, China.
Environ Res. 2020 Sep;188:109701. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109701. Epub 2020 May 23.
This paper aims to explore structural and social-economic determinants of China's transport CO emissions (TCEs) from 2004 to 2016, by using logarithmic mean Divisa index (LMDI). Compared with existing studies, two new factors, i.e., spatial pattern and age structure, that should have impacts on TCEs, are considered in this study. Results show that during 2004-2016: (1) transportation demand and urbanization were dominant in TCEs growth, while energy intensity and industrial structure were the key factors of CO emissions reduction. (2) The effects exerted by age structure and CO emission factor change were relatively mild. The former one has a stable promoting effect, while the latter one inhibits TCEs growth. Additionally, the influence of spatial pattern on the growth of CO emissions from transportation was limited. (3) Energy structure and energy intensity played more important roles in reducing emissions of the transport sector in the eastern region. The effects of population size on the eastern region were much greater than those of the central and western regions, presenting the phenomenon of "eastern agglomeration". (4) In Tianjin, energy intensity and energy structure did not perform well for TCEs.
本文旨在利用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法，探讨 2004-2016 年中国交通运输 CO2 排放（TCEs）的结构和社会经济决定因素。与现有研究相比，本研究考虑了两个新因素，即空间格局和年龄结构，它们可能对 TCEs 产生影响。结果表明，在 2004-2016 年期间：（1）交通需求和城市化是 TCEs 增长的主要因素，而能源强度和产业结构是 CO2 减排的关键因素。（2）年龄结构和 CO 排放因子变化的影响相对较小。前者具有稳定的促进作用，而后者则抑制了 TCEs 的增长。此外，空间格局对交通运输 CO 排放增长的影响有限。（3）能源结构和能源强度在降低东部地区交通运输部门排放方面发挥了更重要的作用。人口规模对东部地区的影响比中部和西部地区大得多，呈现出“东部集聚”的现象。（4）在天津，能源强度和能源结构对 TCEs 的减排效果并不理想。
