Business School, Hunan University, Changsha, 410082, China.
Center for Resource and Environmental Management, Hunan University, Changsha, 410082, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Feb;31(7):10148-10167. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-26465-9. Epub 2023 Mar 28.
Reducing transportation CO emissions and addressing population characteristic changes are two major challenges facing China, involving various requirements for sustainable economic development. Due to the interdependence of population characteristics and transportation, human activities have become a significant cause of the increase in greenhouse gas levels. Previous studies mainly focused on evaluating the relationship between one-dimensional or multi-dimensional demographic factors and CO emissions, while few studies have reported on the effect of multi-dimensional demographic factors on CO emissions in transportation. Analyzing the relationship between transportation CO emissions is the foundation and key to understanding and reducing overall CO emissions. Therefore, this paper used the STIRPAT model and panel data from 2000 to 2019 to investigate the effect of population characteristics on CO emissions of China's transportation sector, and further analyzed the effect mechanism and emission effect of population aging on transportation CO emissions. The results show that (1) population aging and population quality restrained CO emissions from transportation, but the negative effects of population aging were indirectly caused by economic growth and transportation demand. And with the aggravation of population aging, the influence on transport CO emissions changed and presented a U-shape. (2) Population living standard on transportation CO emissions exhibited an urban-rural difference, and urban living standard was predominant in transportation CO emissions. Additionally, population growth is under a weakly positive effect on transportation CO emissions. (3) At the regional level, the effect of population aging on transportation CO emissions showed regional differences. In the eastern region, the CO emission coefficient of transportation was 0.0378, but not significant. In central and western regions, the influence coefficient of transportation was 0.6539 and 0.2760, respectively. These findings indicated that policy makers should make relevant recommendations from the perspective of coordinating population policy and energy conservation and emission reduction policy in transportation.
减少交通运输 CO 排放和应对人口特征变化是中国面临的两大挑战，涉及可持续经济发展的各种要求。由于人口特征和交通运输的相互依存关系，人类活动已成为温室气体水平增加的重要原因。以往的研究主要集中在评估一维或多维人口因素与 CO 排放之间的关系，而很少有研究报告多维人口因素对交通运输 CO 排放的影响。分析交通运输 CO 排放之间的关系是理解和减少整体 CO 排放的基础和关键。因此，本文利用 STIRPAT 模型和 2000-2019 年的面板数据，研究了人口特征对中国交通运输部门 CO 排放的影响，并进一步分析了人口老龄化对交通运输 CO 排放的影响机制和排放效应。结果表明：（1）人口老龄化和人口素质抑制了交通运输的 CO 排放，但人口老龄化的负面影响是通过经济增长和交通运输需求间接产生的。随着人口老龄化的加剧，其对交通 CO 排放的影响发生变化并呈现出 U 型。（2）人口生活水平对交通运输 CO 排放表现出城乡差异，城市生活水平对交通运输 CO 排放的影响更为显著。此外，人口增长对交通运输 CO 排放呈弱正效应。（3）在区域层面，人口老龄化对交通运输 CO 排放的影响存在区域差异。在东部地区，交通运输的 CO 排放系数为 0.0378，但不显著。在中部和西部地区，交通运输的影响系数分别为 0.6539 和 0.2760。这些发现表明，决策者应从协调人口政策和交通运输节能减排政策的角度提出相关建议。
