Winter Steven N, Escobar Luis E
Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 310 W Campus Drive, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USA.
J Wildl Dis. 2020 Oct 1;56(4):741-758. doi: 10.7589/2019-08-213.
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an infectious and fatal prion disease occurring in the family Cervidae. To update the research community regarding the status quo of CWD epidemic models, we conducted a meta-analysis on CWD research. We collected data from peer-reviewed articles published since 1980, when CWD was first diagnosed, until December 2018. We explored the analytical methods used historically to understand CWD. We used 14 standardized variables to assess overall analytical approaches of CWD research communities, data used, and the modeling methods used. We found that CWD modeling initiated in the early 2000s and has increased since then. Connectivity of the research community was heavily reliant on a cluster of CWD researchers. Studies focused primarily on regression and compartment-based models, population-level approaches, and host species of game management concern. Similarly, CWD research focused on single populations, species, and locations, neglecting modeling using community ecology and biogeographic approaches. Chronic wasting disease detection relied on classic diagnostic methods with limited sensitivity for most stages of infection. Overall, we found that past modeling efforts generated a solid baseline for understanding CWD in wildlife and increased our knowledge on infectious prion ecology. Future analytical efforts should consider more sensitive diagnostic methods to quantify uncertainty and broader scale studies to elucidate CWD transmission beyond population-level approaches. Considering that infectious prions may not follow biological rules of well-known wildlife pathogens (i.e., viruses, bacteria, fungi), assumptions used when modeling other infectious disease may not apply for CWD. Chronic wasting disease is a new challenge in wildlife epidemiology.
慢性消耗病（CWD）是一种发生在鹿科动物中的传染性致命朊病毒病。为了让研究界了解慢性消耗病流行模型的现状，我们对慢性消耗病研究进行了一项荟萃分析。我们收集了自1980年首次诊断出慢性消耗病至2018年12月期间发表的同行评审文章中的数据。我们探究了历史上用于了解慢性消耗病的分析方法。我们使用14个标准化变量来评估慢性消耗病研究群体的整体分析方法、所使用的数据以及建模方法。我们发现慢性消耗病建模始于21世纪初，此后一直在增加。研究群体的连通性严重依赖于一群慢性消耗病研究人员。研究主要集中在回归模型和基于隔间的模型、种群水平方法以及具有猎物管理意义的宿主物种上。同样，慢性消耗病研究集中在单一的种群、物种和地点，而忽略了使用群落生态学和生物地理学方法进行建模。慢性消耗病的检测依赖于经典诊断方法，这些方法在感染的大多数阶段灵敏度有限。总体而言，我们发现过去的建模工作为理解野生动物中的慢性消耗病奠定了坚实的基础，并增加了我们对传染性朊病毒生态学的了解。未来的分析工作应考虑采用更灵敏的诊断方法来量化不确定性，并开展更广泛尺度的研究，以阐明慢性消耗病在种群水平方法之外的传播情况。鉴于传染性朊病毒可能不遵循知名野生动物病原体（即病毒、细菌、真菌）的生物学规律，在对其他传染病进行建模时所使用的假设可能不适用于慢性消耗病。慢性消耗病是野生动物流行病学中的一个新挑战。
