da Silva Christian Luiz
Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná - UTFPR, Av 7 de setembro, 3165 Centro, Curitiba, Brazil.
Waste Manag. 2018 Aug;78:456-466. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2018.06.007. Epub 2018 Jun 23.
In Brazil, the National Solid Waste Policy (NSWP) does not encourage incineration. Thus, all the waste generated is disposed of in landfills or recycled. However, currently, around 94% of all the waste generated in Brazil, which is the 4th largest waste generator in the world, is disposed of in landfills. The aim of the article was to develop a dynamic model that allows an analysis of different scenarios involving the tradeoff between investment in new landfills and policies to increase the recycling rate. The methodology used was the technical of analysis of dynamic systems to develop scenarios, following a survey of the data relative to Brazil. The use of dynamic systems enables an understanding of the changing relationships in the waste value chain over time. From the current situation, scenarios have also been developed for Curitiba for 40 years. Curitiba is one of the most important Brazilian capital cities in terms of public policies for waste management. Because it is a dynamic system, the base theory for understanding the relationship between the variables and agents was the circular economy. The variables and relationships of the model were validated specialists, followed by a focal group of specialists in Brazil. By constructing two scenarios, with changes in terms of increasing investments in the public policy for environmental education, it was possible to gauge the impact throughout the value chain of paper and cardboard in Curitiba over a period of 40 years. The results show that the cost of disposal on land will increase, due to the volume generated and the cost of the land. The alternative of investing in recycling policies will reduce this impact in the future. The result shows that the long-term cost of not taking action is higher than the cost of a public policy. If annual investments increase from 315 thousand to 3,15 million (American dollars in 2016), the cost of disposal by 2055 will be reduced by 50 million of dollars per year. Moreover, the recycling rate can be increased by 23%, with the impact on positive externalities for the environment, and reduce the need to increase the use of new land to dispose of more waste. However, even with increased investments in environmental education policies, the 25% recycling rate is not achieved. This shows the need for further actions linked to the organization of the chain. The circular economy is complex, but it transforms problems into opportunities for municipalities such as Curitiba. In cities like Curitiba, where there is no regulated incineration, this analysis model allows an evaluation of the relationship of this tradeoff to propose state policies, transforming this problem into opportunities for municipalities.
在巴西，《国家固体废弃物政策》（NSWP）不鼓励焚烧。因此，产生的所有废弃物都在垃圾填埋场处置或回收利用。然而，目前在巴西产生的所有废弃物中，约94%（巴西是世界第四大废弃物产生国）都在垃圾填埋场处置。本文的目的是开发一个动态模型，以便分析涉及新垃圾填埋场投资与提高回收率政策之间权衡的不同情景。所采用的方法是运用动态系统分析技术来制定情景，这是在对巴西相关数据进行调查之后进行的。动态系统的运用能够理解废弃物价值链中随时间变化的关系。从当前情况出发，还为库里蒂巴制定了40年的情景。就废弃物管理公共政策而言，库里蒂巴是巴西最重要的省会城市之一。由于这是一个动态系统，理解变量与主体之间关系的基础理论是循环经济。该模型的变量和关系由专家进行了验证，随后又经过了巴西专家焦点小组的验证。通过构建两种情景，即在环境教育公共政策方面增加投资，能够评估40年期间库里蒂巴纸张和纸板整个价值链的影响。结果表明，由于产生的废弃物量以及土地成本，垃圾填埋处置成本将会增加。投资回收利用政策的选择将在未来减少这种影响。结果表明，不采取行动的长期成本高于公共政策的成本。如果年度投资从31.5万美元增加到315万美元（2016年美元），到2055年处置成本每年将减少5000万美元。此外，回收率可提高23%，对环境产生积极的外部影响，并减少为处置更多废弃物而增加新土地使用的需求。然而，即使增加了对环境教育政策的投资，也未能实现25%的回收率。这表明需要采取与产业链组织相关的进一步行动。循环经济很复杂，但它将问题转化为像库里蒂巴这样的城市的机遇。在像库里蒂巴这样没有规范焚烧的城市，这种分析模型能够评估这种权衡关系，以提出国家政策，将这个问题转化为城市的机遇。
