巴西的 COVID-19 疫情：我们处于什么阶段？
COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: Where are we at?
机构信息
Collective Health Program, Faculty of Health Science, University of Brasília, Brasília-DF, Brazil.
Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health, Brasília-DF, Brazil.
出版信息
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;97:382-385. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.044. Epub 2020 Jun 16.
OBJETIVE
To analyze the trends of COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020 by Federal Units (FU).
METHOD
Ecological time-series based on cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 11 to May 12. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify points of inflection in COVID-19 trends, considering the days since the 50 confirmed case as time unit.
RESULTS
Brazil reached its 50 confirmed case of COVID-19 in 11 March 2020 and, 63 days after that, on May 12, 177,589 cases had been confirmed. The trends for all regions and FU are upward. In the last segment, from the 31 to the 63 day, Brazil presented a daily percentage change (DPC) of 7.3% (95%CI= 7.2;7.5). For the country the average daily percentage change (ADPC) was 14.2% (95%CI: 13.8;14.5). The highest ADPC values were found in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions.
CONCLUSIONS
In summary, our results show that all FUs in Brazil present upward trends of COVID-19. In some FUs, the slowdown in DPC in the last segment must be considered with caution. Each FU is at a different stage of the pandemic and, therefore, non-pharmacological measures should be adopted accordingly.
目的
分析 2020 年巴西各联邦单位（FU）COVID-19 的趋势。
方法
基于 2020 年 3 月 11 日至 5 月 12 日累计确诊 COVID-19 病例的生态时间序列。采用 Joinpoint 回归模型，以确诊病例出现的天数为时间单位，确定 COVID-19 趋势的拐点。
结果
巴西于 2020 年 3 月 11 日出现第 50 例确诊病例，63 天后，即 5 月 12 日，确诊病例达到 177589 例。所有地区和 FU 的趋势均呈上升趋势。在最后一个阶段，即第 31 天至第 63 天，巴西的日百分比变化（DPC）为 7.3%（95%CI=7.2；7.5）。该国的日平均百分比变化（ADPC）为 14.2%（95%CI：13.8；14.5）。ADPC 值最高的地区是北部、东北部和东南部。
结论
总之，我们的结果表明，巴西所有 FU 都呈现 COVID-19 的上升趋势。在某些 FU 中，最后一个阶段 DPC 的放缓应谨慎对待。每个 FU 都处于大流行的不同阶段，因此应相应采取非药物措施。
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