COVID-19 疫情的长期预测：一个危险的想法。
Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea.
机构信息
Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil.
出版信息
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2020;53:e20200481. doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0481-2020. Epub 2020 Aug 26.
INTRODUCTION
Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic.
METHODS
The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data.
RESULTS
The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model.
CONCLUSIONS
Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.
引言
数学模型已被用于获取 COVID-19 疫情的长期预测。
方法
使用两个巴西州的每日 COVID-19 病例数，通过将数学模型应用于数据，展示了长期预测的潜在局限性。
结果
预测的疫情结束时的病例数和达到峰值时的病例数高度依赖于预测模型中使用的时间序列的长度。
结论
在 COVID-19 大流行期间获得的预测需要谨慎看待。
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