School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, QLD 4222, Australia.
School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, QLD 4222, Australia; School of Engineering, Edith Cowan University, WA 6027, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Oct 20;740:140073. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140073. Epub 2020 Jun 9.
This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time in the Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise and changes in the wind field due to the climate change. To determine the climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used to simulate hydrodynamic and transport processes in the Persian Gulf in both historical (1998-2014) and future periods (2081-2100). Historical simulation was driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach was employed to modify the values and directions of the future wind field obtained from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived from CMCC-CM model of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical model was calibrated and validated using measured data. Results indicated that in the historical period, residence time ranged between values of less than a month in the Strait of Hormuz and 10 years in the semi-enclosed area close to the south of Bahrain. The changes in wind field based on RCP 8.5 scenario were found to be the most disadvantageous for the Persian Gulf's capacity to flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, residence time would be 17% longer than that of historical one. This is mainly because the change in the wind field is large enough to overwhelm general circulation, showing a relationship between the residence time and the residual circulation. Impact of change in the wind field according to RCP 4.5 scenario on the modeled residence time is negligible. The numerical outputs also showed that the sea-level rise would slightly decrease the current velocity, resulting in a negligible increase in residence time. The findings of this study are intended to support establishing climate-adaptation management plans for coastal zones of the studied area in line with sustainable development goals.
本研究评估了在潜在未来海平面上升和气候变化导致的风场变化下，波斯湾环流和停留时间可能发生的变化。为了确定气候变化的影响，使用 Mike 3 流模型 FM 模拟了波斯湾在历史时期（1998-2014 年）和未来时期（2081-2100 年）的水动力和输运过程。历史模拟由 ERA-Interim 数据驱动。采用统计方法修改了从第五阶段耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中获得的代表浓度路径 4.5 和 8.5（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）情景中得到的未来风场的值和方向。数值模型使用测量数据进行了校准和验证。结果表明，在历史时期，停留时间在霍尔木兹海峡的不到一个月和靠近巴林南部的半封闭区域的 10 年之间变化。发现基于 RCP 8.5 情景的风场变化对波斯湾冲洗溶解污染物的能力最为不利。在这种情况下，停留时间将比历史时期长 17%。这主要是因为风场的变化足以压倒一般环流，显示出停留时间与剩余环流之间的关系。根据 RCP 4.5 情景改变风场对模型化停留时间的影响可以忽略不计。数值输出还表明，海平面上升将略微降低当前速度，导致停留时间略有增加。本研究的结果旨在支持根据可持续发展目标为研究区域的沿海地区制定适应气候变化的管理计划。
