School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, PR China.
Business School, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Oct 20;740:140126. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140126. Epub 2020 Jun 11.
In the context of rapid urbanization, ecosystem services (ES) losses pose serious threats to sustainability. How to assess ecological risk based on ES value (ESV) has become an urgent problem for sustainable urbanization. However, existing regional ecological risk assessment frameworks ignore important elements, such as the assessment endpoint and uncertainty, weakening their reliability and practicability. In this study, a regional ecological risk assessment framework integrating ESV and uncertainty was proposed by introducing a classical financial indicator, the Sharpe Ratio. We take Hubei Province, Central China as a case and implemented the spatially explicit risk assessment approach based on the methods of the Markov-logistic-CA model, adjusted-based equivalent factor evaluation model, and geographic information system. The results showed that the distribution of expected ecological returns and corresponding uncertainties at county level had a remarkable spatial heterogeneity, and the assessed ecological risk index in Eastern and Western Hubei was higher than that in Central Hubei, indicating that counties in Central Hubei are the priority areas for ecological risk control. Moreover, the expansion of built-up land had the most significant effect on regional ecological risk. This regional ecological risk framework can well integrate the assessment endpoint and dynamic processes of ecological risk. Our assessment framework has potential practical value for ecological risk control and land use planning on ecosystems.
在快速城市化的背景下，生态系统服务（ES）的损失对可持续性构成了严重威胁。如何基于生态系统服务价值（ESV）评估生态风险已成为可持续城市化的当务之急。然而，现有的区域生态风险评估框架忽略了一些重要因素，如评估终点和不确定性，从而降低了其可靠性和实用性。在本研究中，通过引入经典金融指标——夏普比率，提出了一种将 ESV 和不确定性集成的区域生态风险评估框架。我们以中国中部的湖北省为例，基于马尔可夫逻辑- CA 模型、调整后等效因子评价模型和地理信息系统等方法，实施了空间明确的风险评估方法。结果表明，县级预期生态收益及其相应不确定性的分布具有显著的空间异质性，鄂东和鄂西的评估生态风险指数高于鄂中，表明鄂中地区是生态风险控制的优先区域。此外，建设用地的扩张对区域生态风险的影响最为显著。该区域生态风险框架可以很好地整合生态风险的评估终点和动态过程。我们的评估框架对于生态系统的生态风险控制和土地利用规划具有潜在的实用价值。
