Integrating ecosystem services value and uncertainty into regional ecological risk assessment: A case study of Hubei Province, Central China.

In the context of rapid urbanization, ecosystem services (ES) losses pose serious threats to sustainability. How to assess ecological risk based on ES value (ESV) has become an urgent problem for sustainable urbanization. However, existing regional ecological risk assessment frameworks ignore important elements, such as the assessment endpoint and uncertainty, weakening their reliability and practicability. In this study, a regional ecological risk assessment framework integrating ESV and uncertainty was proposed by introducing a classical financial indicator, the Sharpe Ratio. We take Hubei Province, Central China as a case and implemented the spatially explicit risk assessment approach based on the methods of the Markov-logistic-CA model, adjusted-based equivalent factor evaluation model, and geographic information system. The results showed that the distribution of expected ecological returns and corresponding uncertainties at county level had a remarkable spatial heterogeneity, and the assessed ecological risk index in Eastern and Western Hubei was higher than that in Central Hubei, indicating that counties in Central Hubei are the priority areas for ecological risk control. Moreover, the expansion of built-up land had the most significant effect on regional ecological risk. This regional ecological risk framework can well integrate the assessment endpoint and dynamic processes of ecological risk. Our assessment framework has potential practical value for ecological risk control and land use planning on ecosystems.