Psychology Department, University of Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany;
Social Cognition Center Cologne, University of Cologne, 50923 Cologne, Germany.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 14;117(28):16264-16266. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2006048117. Epub 2020 Jun 24.
The most effective way to stem the spread of a pandemic such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is social distancing, but the introduction of such measures is hampered by the fact that a sizeable part of the population fails to see their need. Three studies conducted during the mass spreading of the virus in the United States toward the end of March 2020 show that this results partially from people's misperception of the virus's exponential growth in linear terms and that overcoming this bias increases support for social distancing. Study 1 shows that American participants mistakenly perceive the virus's exponential growth in linear terms (conservatives more so than liberals). Studies 2 and 3 show that instructing people to avoid the exponential growth bias significantly increases perceptions of the virus's growth and thereby increases support for social distancing. Together, these results show the importance of statistical literacy to recruit support for fighting pandemics such as the coronavirus.
遏制 2019 冠状病毒病（COVID-19）等大流行病传播的最有效方法是社交隔离，但由于相当一部分人没有意识到这一措施的必要性，因此引入这些措施会受到阻碍。2020 年 3 月底，在美国病毒大规模传播期间进行的三项研究表明，这部分是由于人们错误地将病毒的指数增长理解为线性增长，而克服这种偏见会增加对社交隔离的支持。研究 1 表明，美国参与者错误地将病毒的指数增长理解为线性增长（保守派比自由派更严重）。研究 2 和研究 3 表明，指导人们避免指数增长偏差会显著提高对病毒增长的认识，从而增加对社交隔离的支持。这些结果共同表明，统计素养对于争取支持抗击冠状病毒等大流行病非常重要。
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