Prospects of activity limitations among older adults in 23 low and middle income countries.

Increasing life expectancy and a growing share of older people around the world spotlight the issue of health during additional years of life. Research on trends of proportions of older people with activity limitations for low and middle income countries is sparse. We use data from the World Health Survey and the UN World Population Prospects to predict prevalence of activity limitations for 23 low and middle income countries for the upcoming 30 years. Our projections highlight huge variation in the proportion of older adults with limitations across investigated countries and this variation is not expected to diminish. However, these countries are facing considerable demographic changes and even though prevalence rates appear almost constant, absolute numbers are changing which require policy interventions. Furthermore, variations across countries reflect not only disparities in health conditions, but also differences in cultural peculiarities of reporting and historical perception of health.