Baseline anthropometric indices predict change in vertebral size in early adulthood - A 10-year follow-up MRI study.

The vertebral cross-sectional area (CSA) has an independent effect on vertebral strength. Recent evidence has shown that vertebral dimensions significantly increase in the third decade of life, and that lifestyle factors such as body size and composition are clearly associated with vertebral CSA. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that general anthropometric traits (stature, total body mass, lean body mass, fat mass, body mass index, waist circumference), each objectively measured at baseline, predict the change in vertebral CSA over the subsequent decade. A representative sample of young Northern Finnish adults was used (n = 371) with repeated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from ~20 and ~30 years (baseline and follow-up, respectively). Vertebral CSA was measured from the MRI scans with high reliability and low measurement error. The statistical analysis was performed using linear regression models adjusted for sex and exact length of MRI interval. According to the regression models, in descending order of effect size, lean body mass (standardized beta coefficient 0.243 [95% confidence interval 0.065-0.420]), total body mass (0.158 [0.043-0.273]), body mass index (0.125 [0.026-0.224]), waist circumference (0.119 [0.010-0.228]), and fat mass (0.104 [0.004-0.205]) were positively and significantly associated with CSA gain over the follow-up, whereas stature (0.079 [-0.066-0.224]) was not associated with CSA change. The results of this study suggest that anthropometric indices may be used for estimating subsequent change in vertebral size. In particular, greater lean body mass seems to be beneficial for vertebral size and thus potentially also for vertebral strength. Future studies should aim to replicate these associations in a dataset with longitudinal anthropometric trajectories and identify the potential common factors that influence both anthropometric traits and vertebral CSA gain.