Kuai Le, Fei Xiao-Ya, Xing Jia-Qi, Zhang Jing-Ting, Zhao Ke-Qin, Ze Kan, Li Xin, Li Bin
Department of Dermatology of Yueyang Hospital, Shanghai University of TCM, Shanghai 200437, China.
Institute of Dermatology, Shanghai Traditional Chinese Medicine Research Institute, Shanghai 201203, China.
Evid Based Complement Alternat Med. 2020 Jun 16;2020:5091671. doi: 10.1155/2020/5091671. eCollection 2020.
Clinical comprehensive decision-making of diabetic ulcers includes curative effect evaluation and curative effect prediction. Nevertheless, there are few studies on the prediction of diabetic ulcers.
Set pair analysis (SPA) was used to assess the curative effect evaluation, and therapeutic effect was evaluated by connection degree (CD). The higher-order Markov chain-SPA curative effect prediction model was established to predict the future curative effect development. The predicted results with higher-order Markov chain-SPA and traditional first-order Markov-SPA model were compared with the actual results of the patients to verify the effectiveness of prediction.
The connection degree of index levels I and II of 15 patients with diabetic ulcers after traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) treatment increased with time, while that of index levels IV and V decreased, indicating that the curative effect tends to improve. The higher-order Markov chain-SPA model was used to predict the curative effect. The results showed that the relative errors were fewer than the traditional first-order Markov-SPA model.
The present study suggests that a method of SPA combined with higher-order Markov-SPA is relatively effective and can be applied to the clinical prediction of diabetic ulcers, which has higher accuracy than traditional first-order curative effect prediction model.
糖尿病溃疡的临床综合决策包括疗效评估和疗效预测。然而，关于糖尿病溃疡预测的研究较少。
采用集对分析（SPA）评估疗效，通过联系度（CD）评价治疗效果。建立高阶马尔可夫链-SPA疗效预测模型，预测未来疗效发展。将高阶马尔可夫链-SPA和传统一阶马尔可夫-SPA模型的预测结果与患者实际结果进行比较，验证预测的有效性。
15例糖尿病溃疡患者经中医治疗后，I级和II级指标水平的联系度随时间增加，而IV级和V级指标水平的联系度下降，表明疗效趋于改善。采用高阶马尔可夫链-SPA模型预测疗效，结果显示相对误差少于传统一阶马尔可夫-SPA模型。
本研究表明，SPA结合高阶马尔可夫-SPA的方法相对有效，可应用于糖尿病溃疡的临床预测，其准确性高于传统一阶疗效预测模型。
