Gonzales Jose Luis, Roberts Helen, Smietanka Krzysztof, Baldinelli Francesca, Ortiz-Pelaez Angel, Verdonck Frank
EFSA J. 2018 Oct 15;16(10):e05431. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5431. eCollection 2018 Oct.
A rapid qualitative assessment has been done by performing a theoretical analysis on the transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via fresh meat from poultry reared or kept in captivity for the production of meat (raw poultry meat) or raw table eggs. A predetermined transmission pathway followed a number of steps from a commercial or non-commercial poultry establishment within the EU exposed to LPAI virus (LPAIV) to the onward virus transmission to animals and humans. The combined probability of exposure and subsequent LPAIV infection via raw poultry meat containing LPAIV is negligible for commercial poultry and humans exposed via consumption whereas it is very unlikely for non-commercial poultry, wild birds and humans exposed via handling and manipulation. The probability of LPAIV transmission from an individual infected via raw poultry meat containing LPAIV is negligible for commercial poultry and humans, whereas it is very unlikely for non-commercial poultry and wild birds. The combined probability of exposure and subsequent LPAIV infection via raw table eggs containing LPAIV is negligible for commercial poultry and humans and extremely unlikely to negligible for non-commercial poultry and wild birds. The probability of LPAIV transmission from an individual infected via raw table eggs containing LPAIV is negligible for commercial poultry and humans and very unlikely to negligible for non-commercial poultry and wild birds. Although the presence of LPAIV in raw poultry meat and table eggs is very unlikely to negligible, there is in general a high level of uncertainty on the estimation of the subsequent probabilities of key steps of the transmission pathways for poultry and wild birds, mainly due to the limited number of studies available, for instance on the viral load required to infect a bird via raw poultry meat or raw table eggs containing LPAIV.
通过对低致病性禽流感(LPAI)经用于生产肉类(生禽肉)或食用鲜蛋的圈养家禽的鲜肉传播进行理论分析,开展了一项快速定性评估。一条预定的传播途径包含多个步骤,从欧盟境内接触LPAI病毒(LPAIV)的商业或非商业家禽养殖场,到病毒随后向动物和人类的传播。对于通过消费接触的商业家禽和人类而言,经含有LPAIV的生禽肉接触并随后感染LPAIV的综合概率可忽略不计;而对于通过处理和操作接触的非商业家禽、野生鸟类和人类而言,这种情况极不可能发生。对于商业家禽和人类而言,经含有LPAIV的生禽肉感染的个体传播LPAIV的概率可忽略不计;而对于非商业家禽和野生鸟类而言,这种情况极不可能发生。对于商业家禽和人类而言,经含有LPAIV的食用鲜蛋接触并随后感染LPAIV的综合概率可忽略不计;对于非商业家禽和野生鸟类而言,这种情况极不可能至可忽略不计。对于商业家禽和人类而言,经含有LPAIV的食用鲜蛋感染的个体传播LPAIV的概率可忽略不计;对于非商业家禽和野生鸟类而言,这种情况极不可能至可忽略不计。尽管生禽肉和食用鲜蛋中存在LPAIV的可能性极不可能至可忽略不计,但总体而言,对于家禽和野生鸟类传播途径关键步骤后续概率的估计存在高度不确定性,主要原因是现有研究数量有限,例如关于经含有LPAIV的生禽肉或食用鲜蛋感染禽类所需病毒载量的研究。