Benford Diane, Halldorsson Thorhallur, Jeger Michael John, Knutsen Helle Katrine, More Simon, Naegeli Hanspeter, Noteborn Hubert, Ockleford Colin, Ricci Antonia, Rychen Guido, Schlatter Josef R, Silano Vittorio, Solecki Roland, Turck Dominique, Younes Maged, Craig Peter, Hart Andrew, Von Goetz Natalie, Koutsoumanis Kostas, Mortensen Alicja, Ossendorp Bernadette, Martino Laura, Merten Caroline, Mosbach-Schulz Olaf, Hardy Anthony
EFSA J. 2018 Jan 24;16(1):e05123. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5123. eCollection 2018 Jan.
Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision-making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail.
不确定性分析是识别科学知识中的局限性并评估其对科学结论影响的过程。因此，它在欧洲食品安全局（EFSA）的所有科学评估中都具有相关性，并且对于确保评估结论为决策提供可靠信息也是必要的。不确定性分析的形式和程度，以及结论应如何报告，会因每项评估的性质和背景以及存在的不确定性程度而有很大差异。本文件就如何确定在每项评估中哪些不确定性分析选项合适以及如何应用这些选项提供了简明指导。同时还附有一份单独的支持性意见，解释了本指南背后的关键概念和原则，并更详细地描述了方法。
