对流组织程度的变化作为极端降水动态变化的一种机制
Changing Degree of Convective Organization as a Mechanism for Dynamic Changes in Extreme Precipitation.
作者信息
Pendergrass Angeline G
机构信息
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80303 USA.
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
出版信息
Curr Clim Change Rep. 2020;6(2):47-54. doi: 10.1007/s40641-020-00157-9. Epub 2020 May 4.
PURPOSE OF REVIEW
What does recent work say about how changes in convective organization could lead to changes in extreme precipitation?
RECENT FINDINGS
Changing convective organization is one mechanism that could explain variation in extreme precipitation increase through dynamics. In models, the effects of convective self-aggregation on extreme precipitation are sensitive to parameterization, among other factors. In both models and observations, whether or not convective organization influences extreme precipitation is sensitive to the time and space scales analyzed, affecting extreme precipitation on some scales but not others. While trends in observations in convective organization associated with mean precipitation have been identified, it has not yet been established whether these trends are robust or relevant for events associated with extreme precipitation.
SUMMARY
Recent work has documented a somewhat view of how changes in convective organization could affect extreme precipitation with warming, and it remains unclear whether or not they do.
综述目的
近期研究对于对流组织的变化如何导致极端降水的变化有何看法？
近期发现
对流组织的变化是一种可以通过动力学解释极端降水增加变化的机制。在模型中，对流自聚集对极端降水的影响对参数化等因素敏感。在模型和观测中，对流组织是否影响极端降水对所分析的时间和空间尺度敏感，在某些尺度上影响极端降水，而在其他尺度上则不然。虽然已经确定了与平均降水相关的对流组织观测趋势，但这些趋势是否稳健或与极端降水相关事件相关尚待确定。
总结
近期研究记录了对流组织变化如何在变暖情况下影响极端降水的一些观点，而它们是否真的有影响仍不清楚。
Zotero 插件