Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.
CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2024 Sep;1539(1):49-76. doi: 10.1111/nyas.15180. Epub 2024 Aug 19.
We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the "hot models" associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.
我们总结了纽约市（NYC）历史气候变化趋势，并根据一系列全球温室气体排放情景提供了有关未来变化的最新科学分析。在前 NPCC 评估报告的基础上，我们描述了用于为海平面上升、温度和降水的记录预测开发新方法的过程，这些预测涵盖了多种排放途径，并分析了与耦合模型比较计划第 6 阶段（CMIP6）相关的“热门模型”问题及其对 NYC 气候预测的潜在影响。我们描述了 NYC 内部温度变化的科学现状，并解释了导致极端高温事件的大规模和区域动态，以及导致极端高温暴露分布不均的局部物理驱动因素。我们确定了三个潜在风险领域及其可能的错误描述，包括极端事件的物理过程和气候变化的影响。最后，我们回顾了未来研究的机会，重点关注热门模型问题以及预测的空间分辨率与气候信号对城市内部热和热暴露影响的知识差距之间的交叉。
