Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Cs. Ambientales, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), 5500 Mendoza, Argentina;
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental, 12003 Huancayo, Perú.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 21;117(29):16816-16823. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2002411117. Epub 2020 Jul 6.
South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
南美(SA)社会极易受到干旱和洪涝的影响,但长期气候观测的缺乏严重限制了我们对该地区驱动气候变率的全球过程的理解。近年来,对气候敏感的树木年轮序列的数量和质量显著增加,现在为描述自 1400 年以来的气候变率提供了一个由 286 个记录组成的稳健网络。我们将该网络与经过自校准的帕尔默干旱严重指数(scPDSI)数据集相结合,以获得南纬 12°以南大陆的南美干旱图谱(SADA)。年际重建的南半球夏季 scPDSI 是迄今为止对 SA 气候变率最完整的空间估计,与过去的干湿事件吻合得很好。将 SADA 与澳大利亚-新西兰干旱图谱、海表温度和大气压力场相关联,我们确定厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和南极涛动(SAM)与过去几个世纪中 SADA 区域内空间扩展的干旱和洪涝事件密切相关。自 20 世纪中叶以来,SADA 还显示出更广泛的严重干旱和极端洪涝。广泛的干旱与观察到的 20 世纪 SAM 异常呈正相关,同时与中纬度西风减弱相一致,而全球变暖导致的低层水汽输送增强有利于亚热带地区的极端降雨。因此,SADA 为观察到的水文气候变化和 21 世纪政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的预测提供了一个长期背景,这些预测表明,由于温室气体排放的增加,SA 将经历更频繁/更严重的干旱和降雨事件。