McPhaden Michael J, Zebiak Stephen E, Glantz Michael H
NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA.
Science. 2006 Dec 15;314(5806):1740-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1132588.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）循环中，温暖的厄尔尼诺事件和寒冷的拉尼娜事件交替出现，是地球上主要的逐年气候信号。ENSO起源于热带太平洋，通过海洋和大气之间的相互作用产生，但它对全球环境和社会经济都有影响。在1997 - 1998年强大的厄尔尼诺事件推动下，过去几年里，人们对ENSO成因及后果的研究力度大幅加大。这些研究揭示了ENSO对地球系统影响的广度，以及利用其可预测性造福社会的潜力。然而，许多关于ENSO动态、影响、预测及应用的相互交织的问题仍未得到解决。针对这些问题的研究不仅将推动广泛科学学科的进步，还将为向公众和政策制定者宣传气候变率和变化在现代世界中的重要性提供契机。
