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维索萨-米纳斯吉拉斯州的气候学特征以及极端温度和降水的变化

Climatological aspects and changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Viçosa-Minas Gerais.

作者信息

Avila-Diaz Alvaro, Justino FlÁvio, Lindemann Douglas S, Rodrigues Jackson M, Ferreira Gabriela Regina

机构信息

Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG, Brazil.

Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brazil.

出版信息

An Acad Bras Cienc. 2020;92(2):e20190388. doi: 10.1590/0001-3765202020190388. Epub 2020 Jul 6.

Abstract

Extreme climatic events and their hazards have strong impact on society. Urban areas in Brazil are especially vulnerable to the impact of such events due to their rapid growth and inappropriate infrastructure. Viçosa is a mid-sized city in Southeastern Brazil that has been experiencing issues associated with urban expansion and population growth since the 1960s. Thus, this study aims to identify patterns of extreme climate events in Viçosa based on daily temperature and precipitation time series (1968-2017). Homogeneity tests were carried out in order to identify breaking points in these climate variables. Climate trends were analyzed through Mann-Kendall test and their magnitude was checked based on Sen's slope. Results have evidenced statistically significant and increasing trends in annual minimum temperature since the 1990s. Moreover, statistically significant breaking points in extreme temperature indices have shown increasing number of warm days, and decreasing number of cold nights, in both annual and seasonal analyses. Extreme climatic events have been observed more often in recent years, mainly in the number of consecutive dry days and maximum and heavy precipitation days. Based on results, Viçosa experiences warmer conditions throughout the year, whereas more (less) torrential rainfall events have been occurring during Summer (Winter).

摘要

极端气候事件及其危害对社会有着强烈影响。巴西的城市地区因其快速发展和基础设施不当,尤其容易受到此类事件的影响。维索萨是巴西东南部的一个中等规模城市,自20世纪60年代以来一直面临着与城市扩张和人口增长相关的问题。因此,本研究旨在基于每日气温和降水时间序列(1968 - 2017年)确定维索萨极端气候事件的模式。进行了同质性检验以识别这些气候变量中的断点。通过曼 - 肯德尔检验分析气候趋势,并基于森斜率检查其幅度。结果表明,自20世纪90年代以来,年最低气温存在统计学上显著的上升趋势。此外,在年度和季节分析中,极端温度指数的统计学上显著的断点显示暖日数量增加,寒夜数量减少。近年来,极端气候事件更为频繁地出现,主要体现在连续干旱天数以及最大降水量和强降水天数方面。基于研究结果,维索萨全年气候变暖,而夏季(冬季)出现的暴雨事件增多(减少)。

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