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1961—2020年松花江流域极端气候指数的时空变化

Spatial and temporal variations of extreme climate index in the Songhua River Basin during 1961-2020.

作者信息

Yu Shui, Zhang Xiao-Long, Liu Zhi-Juan, Wang Yan, Shen Yan-Jun

机构信息

Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Hebei Laboratory of Agricultural Water-Saving, Shijiazhuang 050022, China.

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.

出版信息

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2023 Apr;34(4):1091-1101. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202304.024.

Abstract

Understanding climate change and extreme climate is of great significance for ensuring food security and socio-economic development of the Songhua River Basin. Based on the daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data during 1961-2020 from 69 meteorological stations in and around the Songhua River Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of extreme temperature and precipitation in the Songhua River Basin using 27 extreme climate indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization, and linear trend method, Mann-Kendall trend test and ordinary Kriging interpolation methodology. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2020, except for cold speel duration, the extreme cold index in the study area showed a downward trend, while the extreme warm index, extreme value index and other temperature indices showed an upward trend. The increasing trend of the minimum temperature was greater than that of the maximum temperature. Icing days, cold speel duration and warm speel duration showed an increasing trend from south to north, while the minimum value of maximum temperature and that of minimum temperature showed opposite spatial characteristics. The high value areas of summer days and tropical nights were mainly distributed in the southwestern region, while there was no obvious spatial variations of cool days, warm nights, and warm days. Overall, except for cold speel duration, other extreme cold indices had a rapid decreasing trend in the north and west of the Songhua River Basin. In the warm index, summer days, warm nights, warm days, and warm speel duration had a rapid upward trend in the north and west, and tropical nights had the fastest rise in the southwest. In the extreme value index, the maximum of temperature rose fastest in the northwest, while the minimum rose fastest in the northeast. Except for consecutive dry days, the rest of precipitation indices showed an increasing trend, and the fastest rising areas were mainly in the north-central part of the Nenjiang River Basin, while some areas in the south of the Nenjiang River Basin became dry. Heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, heaviest precipitation days, consecutive wet days, very wet day precipitation, extremely wet day precipitation, and annual precipitation showed a gradual decreasing pattern from southeast to northwest. Overall, the Songhua River Basin was warming and wetting, but there were some differences among different regions, especially the northern and southern parts of the Nenjiang River Basin.

摘要

了解气候变化和极端气候对于保障松花江流域的粮食安全和社会经济发展具有重要意义。基于松花江流域及周边69个气象站1961—2020年的日降水量、最高气温和最低气温数据,运用世界气象组织推荐的27个极端气候指数,并采用线性趋势法、曼-肯德尔趋势检验和普通克里金插值方法,分析了松花江流域极端气温和降水的时空变化。结果表明,1961—2020年,研究区域除冷期持续时间外,极端寒冷指数呈下降趋势,而极端温暖指数、极值指数等气温指数呈上升趋势。最低气温的上升趋势大于最高气温。结冰日数、冷期持续时间和暖期持续时间自南向北呈增加趋势,而最高气温最小值和最低气温最小值呈现相反的空间特征。夏日数和热带夜数的高值区主要分布在西南部地区,而凉日数、暖夜数和暖日数无明显空间变化。总体而言,除冷期持续时间外,松花江流域北部和西部的其他极端寒冷指数呈快速下降趋势。在温暖指数中,北部和西部的夏日数、暖夜数、暖日数和暖期持续时间呈快速上升趋势,西南部的热带夜数上升最快。在极值指数中,西北部的最高气温上升最快,而东北部的最低气温上升最快。除连续无降水日数外,其余降水指数均呈增加趋势,上升最快的地区主要在嫩江流域中北部,而嫩江流域南部部分地区变干。暴雨日数、大暴雨日数、特大暴雨日数、连续降水日数、极湿日降水量、极端湿日降水量和年降水量自东南向西北呈逐渐减少的格局。总体而言,松花江流域正在变暖变湿,但不同区域存在一定差异,尤其是嫩江流域的北部和南部。

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