Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus, via Mersin 10, Famagusta, Turkey.
Economics Department, Babcock University, Ikenne, Ogun State, Nigeria.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Nov;27(31):39222-39240. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09612-4. Epub 2020 Jul 8.
The critical role of electricity consumption in influencing and reshaping the economic and environmental landscape of the global economy cannot be underestimated. Electricity is the most beneficial and commonly transformed energy source; however, the strength, weakness, opportunities and threat of its consumption require scientific scrutiny. This study investigates electricity-led growth hypothesis vis-à-vis its impact on economic growth and environmental quality of Turkey. The annual time series data set from 1970 to 2014 were employed in the analysis with a battery of unit root and stationary tests. The equilibrium relationship in the study is explored using Maki and Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration tests under multiple structural breaks along with the Pesaran's ARDL bounds test procedure for robust check. The study confirms the existence of cointegration relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, capital, labour and ecological footprint. To detect the direction of causal relations, the VECM Granger causality test is employed. The causality analysis provides empirical evidence that supports the electricity-induced growth hypothesis in Turkey. This implies that embarking on conservative energy-efficient policies will slow down Turkey's economic growth. Thus, precautionary measures that ensure adequate policy on energy mix to guarantee availability and accessibility to modern electricity will sustain economic growth and improve environmental sustainability.
电力消费在影响和重塑全球经济的经济和环境格局方面发挥着至关重要的作用，这一点不容低估。电力是最有益和最常用的能源转换形式；然而，其消费的优势、劣势、机会和威胁需要科学审查。本研究考察了电力主导增长假说及其对土耳其经济增长和环境质量的影响。该分析使用了 1970 年至 2014 年的年度时间序列数据集，并进行了一系列单位根和稳定性检验。在存在多个结构断点的情况下，使用 Maki 和 Bayer-Hanck 联合协整检验以及 Pesaran 的 ARDL 边界检验程序来探索研究中的均衡关系，以进行稳健性检查。该研究证实了土耳其电力消费、经济增长、资本、劳动力和生态足迹之间存在协整关系。为了检测因果关系的方向，采用了 VECM Granger 因果关系检验。因果关系分析提供了实证证据，支持土耳其的电力引发增长假说。这意味着，采取保守的节能政策将减缓土耳其的经济增长。因此，采取谨慎措施，确保能源组合的充分政策，以保证现代电力的供应和可及性，将有助于维持经济增长并提高环境可持续性。
