Departament of Quantitative Analysis, International University of La Rioja, Logroño, Spain.
Department of Economics y Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Física, Matemáticas y Computación, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2021 Jan 7;23(1):48-56. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntaa131.
There is an agreement in the literature that tobacco price elasticity is around -0.4 for given location. Furthermore, works only focus separately, on the temporal dimension or the spatial dimension, however, there are studies that show the existence of spillovers between different geographical areas due to the spatial dependence in tobacco consumption. The novelty of this study is the measurement of the effect that neighboring regions have on the price elasticity of cigarettes.
This study simultaneously analyzed, first, a dynamic spatial model used to measure the price elasticity of cigarettes in the short term and long term of the 47 provinces that make up the Spanish territory, detailing the influence of neighbors. Second, given the spatial arrangement of the elasticities observed in the provinces, we can detect behaviors typical of large-scale illicit trade and cross-border purchasing since geographical location can be an important factor in smuggling, and politicians should take this into account when making price policies.
Results reveal that the consumption of the regions is influenced by the consumption of the neighboring regions in the same period. The price elasticity of cigarettes in the long term exceeds in many cases, in absolute value, unity. This result is novel because tobacco has historically been treated as an inelastic demand good. Finally, we found that the regions that are most sensitive to price are those bordering France and Gibraltar or tourist regions, demonstrating the effect that smuggling has on the behavior of the regions.
These results are important because the price in Spain is set by the central government and fiscal policies regarding the price of tobacco can have different effects in different regions. This study has shown that the consumption of cigarettes is influenced by the neighboring regions and also measured different sensitivities for each region. Regional cooperation in tobacco control policies may have better effects than the elaborated policies based on historical information.
Policy makers should consider that tobacco could be an elastic good in the long term and that cooperation between countries in terms of price differential should be taken to avoid tobacco smuggling. The allocation of resources to control smoking should consider the special dependence shown in this report. Also, academics should account for spatial dependence to measure tobacco consumption instead of temporal analysis.
文献中存在这样一种共识，即在特定地点，烟草价格弹性约为-0.4。此外，现有研究仅分别关注时间维度或空间维度，但也有研究表明，由于烟草消费存在空间依赖性，不同地区之间存在溢出效应。本研究的新颖之处在于衡量相邻地区对香烟价格弹性的影响。
本研究首先同时分析了动态空间模型，以衡量西班牙 47 个省份的短期和长期内香烟的价格弹性，详细说明了邻居的影响。其次，鉴于观察到的各省弹性的空间分布，我们可以发现大规模非法贸易和跨境购买的典型行为，因为地理位置可能是走私的一个重要因素，政治家在制定价格政策时应考虑到这一点。
结果表明，同一时期，各地区的消费受到相邻地区消费的影响。在许多情况下，香烟的长期价格弹性绝对值超过 1。这一结果是新颖的，因为烟草在历史上一直被视为需求无弹性的商品。最后，我们发现对价格最敏感的地区是与法国和直布罗陀接壤的地区或旅游地区，这表明走私对地区行为的影响。
这些结果很重要，因为西班牙的价格是由中央政府制定的，关于烟草价格的财政政策在不同地区可能会产生不同的效果。本研究表明，香烟消费受到相邻地区的影响，并测量了每个地区的不同敏感度。在烟草控制政策方面的区域合作可能比基于历史信息制定的政策具有更好的效果。
政策制定者应考虑到从长期来看烟草可能是一种有弹性的商品，各国应在价格差异方面进行合作，以避免烟草走私。控制吸烟的资源分配应考虑到本报告中显示的特殊依赖性。此外，学者们应考虑空间依赖性来衡量烟草消费，而不是进行时间分析。
