Facultad de Empresa y Comunicación, Universidad Internacional de La Rioja UNIR, Avda. de La Paz, 137, 26004, Logroño, Spain.
Department of Economics y Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Física, Matemáticas y Computación, University of Huelva, Plaza de La Merced, 11, 21002, Huelva, Spain.
Public Health. 2020 Aug;185:275-282. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.05.059. Epub 2020 Jul 22.
Extensive empirical and theoretical studies have been devoted to analyzing the relationship between tobacco and income. The price and income elasticities of demand for cigarette consumption are the main focus of studies in this body of literature. However, few empirical studies exist that analyze how economic growth affects the cigarette market, and no one has studied the effects of economic expansions and recessions. Spain, as in the other countries of the European Union, has suffered a strong recession since 2008. Therefore, this article aims to detect if income elasticity takes different values in economic growth and recession and, in addition, to check whether price elasticity in Spain is consistent with previous studies.
This is an observational epidemiological study.
In this article, the price and income elasticities of demand for cigarette consumption are measured for the Spanish cigarette market using time series data from 1957 to 2016 and by applying a non-linear autoregressive dynamics lag model. The novel specification proposed in this study is the determination of the possible effects of asymmetries in the economic shocks on cigarette consumption.
Our results reveal that cigarette consumption maintains a notable asymmetric relationship. In particular, our results show that in expansion shocks, cigarette consumption increases (a 10% economic growth is associated with a 4.05% increase in cigarette consumption), whereas in recession shocks, cigarette consumption decreases dramatically, with a more pronounced pattern in recession phases than in expansion phases (a 10% economic decline is associated with a 58.16% decrease in cigarette consumption). On the other hand, price elasticity maintains the same behavior shown in the previous literature (a 10% price increase is associated with a 2% decrease in cigarette consumption).
Higher cigarette prices are associated with decreased smoking. In addition, the economic recession helps in decreasing cigarette consumption. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that tax authorities have our results in mind before establishing health policies. If the authorities do not, it is possible that they will not obtain the expected results in terms of decreased tobacco consumption.
大量的实证和理论研究致力于分析烟草和收入之间的关系。需求的价格和收入弹性是这一文献主体的主要研究焦点。然而，很少有实证研究分析经济增长如何影响卷烟市场，也没有人研究过经济扩张和衰退的影响。西班牙和欧盟其他国家一样，自 2008 年以来一直遭受严重衰退。因此，本文旨在检测收入弹性在经济增长和衰退时是否具有不同的值，此外，还检查西班牙的价格弹性是否与以前的研究一致。
这是一项观察性的流行病学研究。
本文使用 1957 年至 2016 年的时间序列数据，通过应用非线性自回归动态滞后模型，对西班牙卷烟市场的卷烟消费需求的价格和收入弹性进行了测量。本研究提出的新颖规范是确定经济冲击的不对称性对卷烟消费可能产生的影响。
我们的结果表明，卷烟消费保持着显著的不对称关系。特别是，我们的结果表明，在扩张冲击中，卷烟消费增加（10%的经济增长与卷烟消费增长 4.05%相关），而在衰退冲击中，卷烟消费急剧下降，在衰退阶段比扩张阶段更为明显（10%的经济衰退与卷烟消费下降 58.16%相关）。另一方面，价格弹性保持了与以前文献中相同的行为（10%的价格上涨与卷烟消费下降 2%相关）。
更高的卷烟价格与吸烟量减少有关。此外，经济衰退有助于减少卷烟消费。因此，强烈建议税务当局在制定卫生政策时考虑到我们的研究结果。如果当局没有这样做，他们可能无法获得预期的减少烟草消费的效果。
