Departamento de Economía Aplicada (Estructura Económica), Universidad de Málaga, Campus El Ejido, 29071, Málaga, Spain.
BMC Int Health Hum Rights. 2020 Jul 11;20(1):15. doi: 10.1186/s12914-020-00236-w.
Illicit financial flows (IFFs) drain domestic resources with harmful social effects, especially in countries which are too poor to mobilise the revenues required to finance the provision of essential public goods and services. In this context, this article empirically examined the association between IFFs and the provision of essential health services in low- and middle-income countries.
Firstly, a set of indicators was selected to represent the overall coverage of essential health services at the country level. Next, a linear multivariate regression model was specified and estimated for each indicator using cross-sectional data for 72 countries for the period 2008-2013.
After controlling for other relevant factors, the main result of the regression analysis was that an annual 1 percentage point (p.p.) increase in the ratio of IFFs to total trade was associated with a 0.46 p.p. decrease in the level of family planning coverage, a 0.31 p.p. decrease in the percentage of women receiving antenatal care, and a 0.32 p.p. decrease in the level of child vaccination coverage rates.
These findings suggest that, for the whole sample of countries considered, at least 3.9 million women and 190,000 children may not receive these basic health care interventions in the future as a consequence of a 1 p.p. increase in the ratio of IFFs to total trade. Moreover, given that family planning, reproductive health, and child immunisation are foundational components of health and long-term development in poor countries, the findings show that IFFs could be undermining the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
非法资金外流（IFFs）对国内资源造成严重破坏，特别是在那些贫穷到无法筹集必要公共产品和服务资金的国家，其社会影响更为严重。在这种情况下，本文从实证角度考察了 IFFs 与中低收入国家基本卫生服务提供之间的关系。
首先，选择了一组指标来代表国家层面基本卫生服务的总体覆盖水平。然后，针对 2008-2013 年 72 个国家的横截面数据，为每个指标指定并估计了一个线性多元回归模型。
在控制了其他相关因素后，回归分析的主要结果表明，IFFs 与贸易总额之比每年增加 1 个百分点，与计划生育覆盖率降低 0.46 个百分点、接受产前护理的妇女人数降低 0.31 个百分点、儿童疫苗接种率降低 0.32 个百分点有关。
这些发现表明，对于考虑的整个国家样本，至少有 390 万妇女和 19 万名儿童可能无法获得这些基本的医疗保健干预措施，因为 IFFs 与贸易总额之比增加 1 个百分点。此外，由于计划生育、生殖健康和儿童免疫接种是贫穷国家健康和长期发展的基础组成部分，因此调查结果表明，IFFs 可能正在破坏可持续发展目标 2030 议程的实现。
