Departamento de Economía Aplicada (Estructura Económica), Universidad de Málaga, Campus El Ejido, Málaga 29071, Spain.
Health Policy Plan. 2018 Mar 1;33(2):224-236. doi: 10.1093/heapol/czx170.
The liberalization of capital flows is generally associated with prospects of higher growth. However, in developing countries, opening the capital account may also facilitate the flow of capital out of the country through illicit financial flows (IFFs). Given that IFFs drain the scarce public resources available to finance the provision of public goods and services, the extent of illicit capital flows from developing countries is serious cause for concern. In this context, as a first step in analysing the social costs of IFFs in developing countries, this article studied the relationship between IFFs and infant immunization coverage rates. Data for 56 low- and middle-income countries for the period 2002-13 were used in the empirical analysis. The main result was that the relative level of IFFs to total trade negatively impacted vaccination coverage but only in the case of countries with very high levels of perceived corruption. In this case, the total effect of an annual 1 p.p. increase in the ratio of IFFs to total trade was to reduce the level of vaccination coverage rates over the coming years by 0.19 p.p. Given that there was an annual average of 18 million infants in this cluster of 25 countries, this result suggests that at least 34 000 children may not receive this basic health care intervention in the future as a consequence of this increase in IFFs in any particular year.
资本流动自由化通常与更高增长的前景相关联。然而，在发展中国家，开放资本账户也可能通过非法资金流动（IFFs）促进资本流出该国。鉴于 IFFs 消耗了为提供公共产品和服务提供资金的稀缺公共资源，发展中国家非法资本流出的程度令人严重关切。在这种情况下，作为分析发展中国家 IFFs 的社会成本的第一步，本文研究了 IFFs 与婴儿免疫接种覆盖率之间的关系。实证分析使用了 2002-13 年期间 56 个低收入和中等收入国家的数据。主要结果是，IFFs 相对于总贸易的相对水平对疫苗接种覆盖率产生负面影响，但仅在感知腐败程度非常高的国家中如此。在这种情况下，IFFs 与总贸易之比每年增加 1 个百分点的总效应是，在未来几年中，接种率水平将降低 0.19 个百分点。鉴于在这 25 个国家的这个群组中，每年平均有 1800 万婴儿，这一结果表明，由于当年 IFFs 的增加，至少有 34000 名儿童将来可能无法获得这种基本的医疗保健干预。
