Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Arch Iran Med. 2020 Jul 1;23(7):462-468. doi: 10.34172/aim.2020.43.
The initiation age and prevalence of cigarette smoking are two important parameters in any smoking-related policymaking domain.
Dataset was extracted from STEPs survey, a population-based study conducted in Iran in 2016. A total of 27612 participants were included in the current study. We used a spatial parametric survival mixture rate cure model with doubly censoring to simultaneously assess the initiation age and prevalence of smoking.
The entire study population, men and women had the estimated median initiation age of 23.3 (95% CI: 22.2-24.5), 21.9 (95% CI: 21.3-22.5), and 25.5 (95% CI: 22.8-28.7) years, and the prevalence of 10.11% (95% CI: 9.3%-11.0%), 22.3% (95% CI: 21.0%-23.6%), 0.78% (95% CI: 0.62%-0.97%), respectively. The hazard of smoking initiation in men was 66% which was higher than in women (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.15-2.48). The odds of smoking in men was 36.5 times greater than that of women (odds ratio [OR] = 36.5, 95% CI: 29.66-45.52). Odds of smoking decreased by 32% in the entire study population and 14% with one level increase in their education (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.65-0.72) and socioeconomic status (OR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.82-0.94), respectively. The geographical distribution of smoking initiation age varied from 21.5 to 26.37 years for the entire study population, 20.2 to 24.8 years for men, and 23.53 to 28.91 years for women. The geographical distribution of smoking prevalence varied from 5.46% to 14.98% for the entire study population, 12.82% to 30.98% for men, and 0.4% to 1.2% for women.
The geographical distribution of smoking initiation age and prevalence showed that in different parts of the country, the initiation age and rate of smoking are different which should be considered in any preventative policy making.
吸烟起始年龄和流行率是与吸烟相关的政策制定领域中的两个重要参数。
本研究数据来自于伊朗于 2016 年开展的基于人群的 STEPs 调查。共有 27612 名参与者纳入本研究。我们采用空间参数生存混合比例治愈模型进行双 censoring，以同时评估吸烟的起始年龄和流行率。
整个研究人群中，男性和女性的估计中位起始年龄分别为 23.3（95%CI：22.2-24.5）、21.9（95%CI：21.3-22.5）和 25.5（95%CI：22.8-28.7）岁，流行率分别为 10.11%（95%CI：9.3%-11.0%）、22.3%（95%CI：21.0%-23.6%）、0.78%（95%CI：0.62%-0.97%）。男性吸烟的起始风险是女性的 66%（风险比[HR] = 1.66，95%CI：1.15-2.48）。男性吸烟的可能性是女性的 36.5 倍（比值比[OR] = 36.5，95%CI：29.66-45.52）。整个研究人群中，吸烟的可能性下降了 32%，教育程度每提高一个等级，下降了 14%（OR = 0.68，95%CI：0.65-0.72）和社会经济地位（OR = 0.86，95%CI：0.82-0.94）。吸烟起始年龄的地理分布在整个研究人群中从 21.5 岁到 26.37 岁不等，男性为 20.2 岁到 24.8 岁，女性为 23.53 岁到 28.91 岁。吸烟流行率的地理分布在整个研究人群中从 5.46%到 14.98%不等，男性为 12.82%到 30.98%，女性为 0.4%到 1.2%。
吸烟起始年龄和流行率的地理分布表明，在该国不同地区，起始年龄和吸烟率存在差异，在制定任何预防政策时都应考虑这一点。
