AP-HP.Centre, DMU Psychiatrie et Addictologie, Corentin Celton Hospital, Issy-les-Moulineaux, France.
INSERM U1266, Paris, France.
Nat Med. 2020 Sep;26(9):1417-1421. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-1001-6. Epub 2020 Jul 14.
Many European countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing nationwide protection measures and lockdowns. However, the epidemic could rebound when such measures are relaxed, possibly leading to a requirement for a second or more, repeated lockdowns. Here, we present results of a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. We examined the potential impact of post-lockdown measures, including physical distancing, mask-wearing and shielding individuals who are the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection, on cumulative disease incidence and mortality, and on intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy. While lockdown is effective in containing the viral spread, once lifted, regardless of duration, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound. Both physical distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing ICUs from becoming overwhelmed and a subsequent second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with the shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower mortality and maintaining an adequate ICU capacity to prevent a second lockdown. Benefits would nonetheless be markedly reduced if most people do not adhere to these measures, or if they are not maintained for a sufficiently long period.
许多欧洲国家通过实施全国性的保护措施和封锁来应对 COVID-19 大流行。然而，当这些措施放宽时，疫情可能会反弹，可能需要第二次甚至更多次的封锁。在这里，我们呈现了法国 COVID-19 疫情的随机主体基于模型的模拟结果。我们研究了包括物理距离、戴口罩和保护那些最容易感染 COVID-19 重症的人在内的封锁后措施对累计发病和死亡率以及重症监护病房（ICU）床位占用的潜在影响。尽管封锁措施有效地控制了病毒的传播，但一旦解除，无论持续时间长短，都不太可能阻止疫情反弹。物理距离和戴口罩虽然能有效减缓疫情和降低死亡率，但最终也无法防止 ICU 不堪重负，从而导致第二次封锁。然而，如果大多数人不遵守这些措施，或者这些措施没有持续足够长的时间，这些措施与保护弱势群体结合起来将有助于取得更好的结果，包括降低死亡率和维持足够的 ICU 容量以防止第二次封锁。然而，如果大多数人不遵守这些措施，或者这些措施没有持续足够长的时间，这些措施与保护弱势群体结合起来将有助于取得更好的结果，包括降低死亡率和维持足够的 ICU 容量以防止第二次封锁。然而，如果大多数人不遵守这些措施，或者这些措施没有持续足够长的时间，这些措施与保护弱势群体结合起来将有助于取得更好的结果，包括降低死亡率和维持足够的 ICU 容量以防止第二次封锁。然而，如果大多数人不遵守这些措施，或者这些措施没有持续足够长的时间，这些措施与保护弱势群体结合起来将有助于取得更好的结果，包括降低死亡率和维持足够的 ICU 容量以防止第二次封锁。然而，如果大多数人不遵守这些措施，或者这些措施没有持续足够长的时间，这些措施与保护弱势群体结合起来将有助于取得更好的结果，包括降低死亡率和维持足够的 ICU 容量以防止第二次封锁。
