Routine immunization against and type B and antibiotic consumption in India: a dynamic modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND

Childhood vaccinations can reduce disease burden and associated antibiotic use, in turn reducing the risk of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We retrospectively estimated the population-level reductions in antibiotic use in India following the introduction of vaccines against and type B in the national immunization program for children in the mid-2010s and projected future gains to 2028 if vaccination coverage were to be increased.

METHODS

Using IndiaSim, a dynamic agent-based microsimulation model (ABM) for India, we simulated the spread of and type B (Hib) among children to estimate reductions in antibiotic use under the scenarios of: (i) pneumococcal and Hib vaccine coverage levels equivalent to the national coverage of pentavalent diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus third dose (DPT3) compared to a baseline of no vaccination, and (ii) near-universal (90%) coverage of the vaccines compared to pre-COVID national DPT3-level coverage. Model parameters, including national DPT3 coverage rates, were based on data from the National Family Household Survey 2015-2016 and other published sources. We quantified reductions in antibiotic consumption nationally and by state and wealth quintiles.

FINDINGS

We estimate that coverage of and Hib vaccines at the same level as DPT3 in India would translate to a 61.4% [95% UI: 43.8-69.5] reduction in attributable antibiotic use compared to a baseline of zero vaccination coverage. Increases in childhood vaccination coverage between 2004 and 2016 have likely reduced attributable antibiotic demand by as much as 93.4% among the poorest quintile. Increasing vaccination coverage by an additional 11 percentage points from 2016 levels results in mortality and antibiotic use across wealth quintiles becoming increasingly similar (p < 0.05), reducing in health inquities. We project that near-universal vaccine coverage would further reduce inequities in antibiotic demand and may eliminate of outbreak-associated antibiotic use from and Hib.

INTERPRETATION

Though vaccination has a complex relationship with antibiotic use because both are modulated by socioeconomic factors, increasing vaccinations for and Hib may have a significant impact on reducing antibiotic use and improving health outcomes among the poorest individuals.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant numbers OPP1158136 and OPP1190803).