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意大利伦巴第地区重症监护病房中 COVID-19 患者死亡的相关危险因素。

Risk Factors Associated With Mortality Among Patients With COVID-19 in Intensive Care Units in Lombardy, Italy.

机构信息

Dipartimento di Anestesia, Rianimazione e Emergenza-Urgenza, Fondazione IRCCS (Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico) Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.

Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.

出版信息

JAMA Intern Med. 2020 Oct 1;180(10):1345-1355. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3539.


DOI:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3539
PMID:32667669
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7364371/
Abstract

IMPORTANCE: Many patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically ill and require care in the intensive care unit (ICU). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the independent risk factors associated with mortality of patients with COVID-19 requiring treatment in ICUs in the Lombardy region of Italy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective, observational cohort study included 3988 consecutive critically ill patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 referred for ICU admission to the coordinating center (Fondazione IRCCS [Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico] Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy) of the COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network from February 20 to April 22, 2020. Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was confirmed by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay of nasopharyngeal swabs. Follow-up was completed on May 30, 2020. EXPOSURES: Baseline characteristics, comorbidities, long-term medications, and ventilatory support at ICU admission. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Time to death in days from ICU admission to hospital discharge. The independent risk factors associated with mortality were evaluated with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Of the 3988 patients included in this cohort study, the median age was 63 (interquartile range [IQR] 56-69) years; 3188 (79.9%; 95% CI, 78.7%-81.1%) were men, and 1998 of 3300 (60.5%; 95% CI, 58.9%-62.2%) had at least 1 comorbidity. At ICU admission, 2929 patients (87.3%; 95% CI, 86.1%-88.4%) required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The median follow-up was 44 (95% CI, 40-47; IQR, 11-69; range, 0-100) days; median time from symptoms onset to ICU admission was 10 (95% CI, 9-10; IQR, 6-14) days; median length of ICU stay was 12 (95% CI, 12-13; IQR, 6-21) days; and median length of IMV was 10 (95% CI, 10-11; IQR, 6-17) days. Cumulative observation time was 164 305 patient-days. Hospital and ICU mortality rates were 12 (95% CI, 11-12) and 27 (95% CI, 26-29) per 1000 patients-days, respectively. In the subgroup of the first 1715 patients, as of May 30, 2020, 865 (50.4%) had been discharged from the ICU, 836 (48.7%) had died in the ICU, and 14 (0.8%) were still in the ICU; overall, 915 patients (53.4%) died in the hospital. Independent risk factors associated with mortality included older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.60-1.92), male sex (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.31-1.88), high fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.10-1.19), high positive end-expiratory pressure (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06) or low Pao2:Fio2 ratio (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.87) on ICU admission, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.28-2.19), hypercholesterolemia (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02-1.52), and type 2 diabetes (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01-1.39). No medication was independently associated with mortality (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.97-1.42; angiotensin receptor blockers HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.85-1.29). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this retrospective cohort study of critically ill patients admitted to ICUs in Lombardy, Italy, with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, most patients required IMV. The mortality rate and absolute mortality were high.

摘要

重要提示:许多患有 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的患者病情严重,需要在重症监护病房(ICU)接受治疗。

目的:评估与意大利伦巴第地区需要入住 ICU 的 COVID-19 患者死亡率相关的独立危险因素。

设计、地点和参与者:本回顾性观察性队列研究纳入了 2020 年 2 月 20 日至 4 月 22 日期间,由 COVID-19 伦巴第 ICU 网络协调中心(米兰的 Fondazione IRCCS [Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico] Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico)收治的 3988 例连续确诊为实验室 COVID-19 的重症患者。严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 的感染通过鼻咽拭子的实时逆转录酶聚合酶链反应检测得到确认。随访于 2020 年 5 月 30 日完成。

暴露情况:入住 ICU 时的基线特征、合并症、长期用药和通气支持。

主要结果和测量指标:从 ICU 入院到出院的死亡天数。使用多变量 Cox 比例风险回归评估与死亡率相关的独立危险因素。

结果:在本队列研究中,纳入的 3988 例患者的中位年龄为 63 岁(四分位距[IQR],56-69 岁);3188 例(79.9%;95%CI,78.7%-81.1%)为男性,3300 例中有 1998 例(60.5%;95%CI,58.9%-62.2%)至少存在 1 种合并症。入住 ICU 时,2929 例(87.3%;95%CI,86.1%-88.4%)患者需要有创机械通气(IMV)。中位随访时间为 44 天(95%CI,40-47;IQR,11-69;范围,0-100);中位症状出现至 ICU 入院时间为 10 天(95%CI,9-10;IQR,6-14);中位 ICU 住院时间为 12 天(95%CI,12-13;IQR,6-21);中位 IMV 时间为 10 天(95%CI,10-11;IQR,6-17)。累积观察时间为 164 305 患者日。医院和 ICU 死亡率分别为每 1000 患者日 12 例(95%CI,11-12)和 27 例(95%CI,26-29)。在第 1715 例患者的亚组中,截至 2020 年 5 月 30 日,865 例(50.4%)已从 ICU 出院,836 例(48.7%)在 ICU 死亡,14 例(0.8%)仍在 ICU 中;总体而言,915 例(53.4%)患者在医院死亡。与死亡率相关的独立危险因素包括年龄较大(风险比[HR],1.75;95%CI,1.60-1.92)、男性(HR,1.57;95%CI,1.31-1.88)、高吸入氧分数(Fio2)(HR,1.14;95%CI,1.10-1.19)、高呼气末正压(HR,1.04;95%CI,1.01-1.06)或低 Pao2:Fio2 比值(HR,0.80;95%CI,0.74-0.87)、慢性阻塞性肺疾病史(HR,1.68;95%CI,1.28-2.19)、高胆固醇血症(HR,1.25;95%CI,1.02-1.52)和 2 型糖尿病(HR,1.18;95%CI,1.01-1.39)。没有药物与死亡率相关(血管紧张素转换酶抑制剂 HR,1.17;95%CI,0.97-1.42;血管紧张素受体阻滞剂 HR,1.05;95%CI,0.85-1.29)。

结论和相关性:在这项针对意大利伦巴第地区确诊为 COVID-19 且需要入住 ICU 的重症患者的回顾性队列研究中,大多数患者需要有创机械通气。死亡率和绝对死亡率均较高。

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