Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, European University of Lefke, Lefke, Northern Cyprus, TR-10, Mersin, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Nov;27(32):40777-40786. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10090-x. Epub 2020 Jul 15.
It is globally acceptable that carbon dioxide (CO) emissions are one of the greenhouse gases are considered the main factor influencing global warming and environmental degradation. The present study focuses on China, the world's largest carbon emitter. The study aims to capture the time-frequency dependency of economic growth and CO emissions in China for the time period 1950-2016 using a wavelet coherence approach, which allows us to investigate both the long-run and short-run causal links of the estimated variables. In order to capture the long-run and causal linkage between economic growth and CO emissions, the study employs Maki cointegration, wavelet coherence, Toda-Yamamoto causality, Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality, and nonparametric Granger causality tests. The findings of this study reveal that (i) there is a significant vulnerability between economic growth and CO emissions throughout the 2000s both the short-term and medium-term; (ii) there is long-run cointegration linkage between economic growth and CO emissions in China; (iii) economic growth in China has an important power for predicting CO emissions over the selected study period, especially in the short-term and medium-term; and (iv) it was observed that there is positive correlation between economic growth during the 1980s and 1990s in the short-term only. The outcome of the Toda-Yamamoto causality, Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality, and nonparametric Granger causality tests underlines that economic growth is a robust policy variable for predicting CO emissions in China.
全球公认二氧化碳(CO)排放是温室气体之一,被认为是影响全球变暖与环境退化的主要因素。本研究聚焦于世界最大的碳排放国中国。该研究旨在利用小波相干方法捕捉 1950-2016 年期间中国经济增长与 CO 排放的时频相依关系,从而研究估计变量的长期和短期因果关系。为了捕捉经济增长与 CO 排放之间的长期和因果关系,本研究采用了 Maki 协整检验、小波相干检验、Toda-Yamamoto 因果检验、Fourier Toda-Yamamoto 因果检验和非参数格兰杰因果检验。研究结果表明:(i)在整个 21 世纪,经济增长与 CO 排放之间存在显著的短期和中期脆弱性;(ii)中国经济增长与 CO 排放之间存在长期协整关系;(iii)在中国选定的研究期间内,经济增长对 CO 排放具有重要的短期和中期预测能力;(iv)仅在短期观察到 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代经济增长之间存在正相关关系。Toda-Yamamoto 因果检验、Fourier Toda-Yamamoto 因果检验和非参数格兰杰因果检验的结果强调了经济增长是中国 CO 排放的一个稳健的政策变量。