School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China.
Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Aug;28(29):39708-39722. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13218-9. Epub 2021 Mar 24.
Due to the significant changes of economic growth rate, energy structure, and energy efficiency in China, whether energy policies should be adjusted is worthy of attention. This paper employs ARDL-ECM and Toda-Yamamoto causality to investigate the relationship between renewable energy, non-renewable energy, carbon emissions, economic growth, gross fixed capital formation, and urban population spanning the period 1960-2019 in China. The examined results of ARDL-ECM indicate that renewable energy both have positive impact on GDP in the short term and long term but non-renewable energy only have positive impact on GDP in the short term. Additionally, based on Toda-Yamamoto causality, this paper finds a unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to energy consumption and from energy consumption to carbon emissions. And there is a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to non-renewable energy consumption. It is worth noting that renewable energy consumption and economic growth have positive bidirectional influence on each other. The study findings suggest that stricter energy conservation and pollution emission reduction policy should be implemented and renewable energy should be applied on a larger scale in order to achieve the goal of sustainable economic development.
由于中国经济增长率、能源结构和能源效率的重大变化，能源政策是否应进行调整值得关注。本文采用 ARDL-ECM 和 Toda-Yamamoto 因果关系检验方法，研究了 1960-2019 年中国可再生能源、不可再生能源、碳排放、经济增长、固定资本形成总额和城市人口之间的关系。ARDL-ECM 的检验结果表明，可再生能源在短期内和长期内对 GDP 都有正向影响，但不可再生能源仅在短期内对 GDP 有正向影响。此外，基于 Toda-Yamamoto 因果关系，本文发现从经济增长到能源消费以及从能源消费到碳排放存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。而且 GDP 与非可再生能源消费之间也存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。值得注意的是，可再生能源消费和经济增长之间存在着积极的双向影响。研究结果表明，为了实现可持续经济发展的目标，应实施更严格的节能和减排政策，并更大规模地应用可再生能源。
