School of Policy Studies, Ethiopian Civil Service University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Aug;28(32):43579-43598. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13341-7. Epub 2021 Apr 10.
The relationship between income inequality, economic growth, and CO emissions is ambiguous both theoretically and empirically. Hence, this study examines the link between income inequality, economic growth and CO emissions in Ethiopia for time span covering 1979-2014 using ARDL bounds test and DOLS approach to cointegration. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test and Clemente-Montanes-Reyes unit root test reveal that some of the variables under consideration are stationary at level while others become stationary after first differencing. Both ARDL and DOLS approaches confirm that there is a long-run relationship among the series during the study period. The long-run empirical results show that a 1% increase in economic growth accounts for a 1.05% increase in CO emissions while a 1% increase in economic growth squared reduces CO2 emissions by 0.11%. The U-test result reveals that the relationship between CO emissions and economic growth confirms existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The effect of income inequality on CO is not robust to alternative estimation techniques; it is statistically insignificant under the ARDL estimation, but DOLS estimates show that a 1% increase in income inequality increases CO emissions by 0.21% in the long-run during the study period. In the long-run, a 1% rise in urbanization, population size, energy intensity, and industrialization each positively contribute to environmental degradation in Ethiopia by 0.38%, 0.22%, 0.07%, and 0.11% respectively. Results from the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality show a bidirectional causal relationship between CO emissions and all other variables except economic growth. CO emissions Granger causes economic growth with no feedback effect. Results suggested important policy implications in the light of achieving its 2030 targets of low-carbon economy for Ethiopia.
收入不平等、经济增长和二氧化碳排放之间的关系在理论和经验上都是模糊的。因此，本研究使用 ARDL 边界检验和协整的 DOLS 方法，考察了 1979-2014 年期间埃塞俄比亚收入不平等、经济增长和二氧化碳排放之间的关系。Zivot-Andrews 单位根检验和 Clemente-Montanes-Reyes 单位根检验表明，考虑的一些变量在水平上是稳定的，而其他变量在一阶差分后变得稳定。ARDL 和 DOLS 方法都证实，在研究期间，这些序列之间存在长期关系。长期经验结果表明，经济增长增加 1%，二氧化碳排放增加 1.05%，而经济增长平方增加 1%，二氧化碳排放减少 0.11%。U 检验结果表明，二氧化碳排放与经济增长之间的关系证实了环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的存在。收入不平等对 CO 的影响在替代估计技术下并不稳健；在 ARDL 估计下，它在统计上是不显著的，但 DOLS 估计表明，在研究期间，收入不平等增加 1%，长期内二氧化碳排放增加 0.21%。在长期内，城市化、人口规模、能源强度和工业化每增加 1%，分别对埃塞俄比亚的环境恶化贡献 0.38%、0.22%、0.07%和 0.11%。Toda-Yamamoto 格兰杰因果检验结果表明，二氧化碳排放与除经济增长以外的所有其他变量之间存在双向因果关系。二氧化碳排放格兰杰导致经济增长，没有反馈效应。根据埃塞俄比亚实现 2030 年低碳经济目标的情况，结果提出了重要的政策含义。
