Am Nat. 2020 Aug;196(2):145-156. doi: 10.1086/709548. Epub 2020 Jul 6.
The often complex spatial patterns of propagule dispersal across a metapopulation present a challenge for species management, motivating efforts to represent the connectivity in simpler but meaningful ways. The reduction of complexity may be achieved by partitioning the metapopulation into groups of highly connected patches called "subpopulations." To have relevance for management, these subunits must be defined from ecological or evolutionary principles. The probabilities of dispersal-mediated propagule interchange between sites, commonly organized into a connectivity matrix, entail a timescale that is usually ignored in subpopulation analyses, limiting their utility and possibly leading to misinterpretation and wrong management decisions. Recognition of the essentially dynamical role played by metapopulation connectivity naturally leads to the incorporation of the generational timescale into the partitioning analysis. An algorithm is proposed to determine the subpopulations-both their cardinality and their composition-as a function of the generational timescale and of a limiting probability of connection, illustrated with a novel empirical estimate of mesopelagic connectivity. The proposed framework allows the unambiguous determination of the timescales corresponding to dispersal barriers and the identification of effective ecological units across the spectrum of management-relevant time horizons.
生物扩散种在整个复合种群中的复杂空间格局给物种管理带来了挑战，促使人们努力以更简单但有意义的方式来表示连通性。通过将复合种群划分为称为“亚种群”的高度连通斑块组，可以实现复杂性的降低。为了与管理相关，这些亚单位必须根据生态或进化原则来定义。在通常忽略亚种群分析中时间尺度的情况下，对不同地点之间通过扩散介导的繁殖体交换的可能性（通常组织成连通性矩阵）进行组织，限制了它们的实用性，并可能导致误解和错误的管理决策。认识到复合种群连通性所起的基本动态作用，自然会导致将世代时间尺度纳入分区分析。提出了一种算法来确定亚种群-作为世代时间尺度和连接极限概率的函数-它们的基数和组成，并用中海洋连通性的新的经验估计来说明。所提出的框架允许明确确定与扩散障碍相对应的时间尺度，并在与管理相关的时间范围内确定有效的生态单元。
