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印度COVID-19感染的数据驱动建模与预测以及病毒传播与社会经济因素的相关性分析。

Data-driven modelling and prediction of COVID-19 infection in India and correlation analysis of the virus transmission with socio-economic factors.

作者信息

Kumar Amit, Rani Poonam, Kumar Rahul, Sharma Vasudha, Purohit Soumya Ranjan

机构信息

Agricultural and Food Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, West Bengal, 721302, India.

Vignan's Foundation for Science Technology and Research, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, 522213, India.

出版信息

Diabetes Metab Syndr. 2020 Sep-Oct;14(5):1231-1240. doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.07.008. Epub 2020 Jul 9.


DOI:10.1016/j.dsx.2020.07.008
PMID:32683321
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7347321/
Abstract

AIMS: The current study attempts to model the COVID-19 outbreak in India, USA, China, Japan, Italy, Iran, Canada and Germany. The interactions of coronavirus transmission with socio-economic factors in India using the multivariate approach were also investigated. METHODS: Actual cumulative infected population data from 15 February to May 15, 2020 was used for determination of parameters of a nested exponential statistical model, which were further employed for the prediction of infection. Correlation and Principal component analysis provided the relationships of coronavirus spread with socio-economic factors of different states of India using the Rstudio software. RESULTS: Cumulative infection and spreadability rate predicted by the model was in good agreement with the actual observed data for all countries (R = 0.985121 to 0.999635, and MD = 1.2-7.76%) except Iran (R = 0.996316, and MD = 18.38%). Currently, the infection rate in India follows an upward trajectory, while other countries show a downward trend. The model claims that India is likely to witness an increased spreading rate of COVID-19 in June and July. Moreover, the flattening of the cumulative infected population is expected to be obtained in October infecting more than 12 lakhs people. Indian states with higher population were more susceptible to virus infection. CONCLUSIONS: A long-term prediction of cumulative cases, spreadability rate, pandemic peak of COVID-19 was made for India. Prediction provided by the model considering most recent data is useful for making appropriate interventions to deal with the rapidly emerging pandemic.

摘要

目的:本研究试图对印度、美国、中国、日本、意大利、伊朗、加拿大和德国的新冠肺炎疫情进行建模。还使用多变量方法研究了印度冠状病毒传播与社会经济因素之间的相互作用。 方法:使用2020年2月15日至5月15日的实际累计感染人口数据来确定嵌套指数统计模型的参数,这些参数进一步用于感染预测。相关性和主成分分析使用Rstudio软件提供了印度不同邦冠状病毒传播与社会经济因素之间的关系。 结果:该模型预测的累计感染率和传播率与所有国家(伊朗除外)的实际观测数据高度吻合(R = 0.985121至0.999635,平均偏差 = 1.2 - 7.76%),伊朗的吻合度为(R = 0.996316,平均偏差 = 18.38%)。目前,印度的感染率呈上升趋势,而其他国家呈下降趋势。该模型称,印度可能在6月和7月见证新冠肺炎传播率上升。此外,预计10月累计感染人口将趋于平缓,感染人数超过120万。人口较多的印度邦更容易受到病毒感染。 结论:对印度新冠肺炎的累计病例、传播率、疫情高峰进行了长期预测。该模型基于最新数据提供的预测有助于做出适当干预,以应对迅速出现的疫情。

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[4]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 in Mexico applying mathematical and computational models.

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020-9

[2]
Modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Heilongjiang province, China.

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020-9

[3]
Forecasting the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy, UK and USA using fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model.

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020-9

[4]
Projections for COVID-19 pandemic in India and effect of temperature and humidity.

Diabetes Metab Syndr. 2020

[5]
Time Series Analysis and Forecast of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India using Genetic Programming.

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020-9

[6]
Factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to COVID.

Sci Total Environ. 2020-4-20

[7]
Correlation between environmental pollution indicators and COVID-19 pandemic: A brief study in Californian context.

Environ Res. 2020-5-13

[8]
Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran.

Sci Total Environ. 2020-4-17

[9]
Prediction for the spread of COVID-19 in India and effectiveness of preventive measures.

Sci Total Environ. 2020-4-20

[10]
Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy.

Nat Med. 2020-4-22

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