Department of Psychology, School of Science and Technology, Middlesex University.
Intelligence, Influence and Collaboration Section, Defence Research Development Canada.
Am Psychol. 2021 Apr;76(3):549-560. doi: 10.1037/amp0000637. Epub 2020 Jul 23.
Intelligence analysis is fundamentally an exercise in expert judgment made under conditions of uncertainty. These judgments are used to inform consequential decisions. Following the major intelligence failure that led to the 2003 war in Iraq, intelligence organizations implemented policies for communicating probability in their assessments. Virtually all chose to convey probability using standardized linguistic lexicons in which an ordered set of select probability terms (e.g., highly likely) is associated with numeric ranges (e.g., 80-90%). We review the benefits and drawbacks of this approach, drawing on psychological research on probability communication and studies that have examined the effectiveness of standardized lexicons. We further discuss how numeric probabilities can overcome many of the shortcomings of linguistic probabilities. Numeric probabilities are not without drawbacks (e.g., they are more difficult to elicit and may be misunderstood by receivers with poor numeracy). However, these drawbacks can be ameliorated with training and practice, whereas the pitfalls of linguistic probabilities are endemic to the approach. We propose that, on balance, the benefits of using numeric probabilities outweigh their drawbacks. Given the enormous costs associated with intelligence failure, the intelligence community should reconsider its reliance on using linguistic probabilities to convey probability in intelligence assessments. Our discussion also has implications for probability communication in other domains such as climate science. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).
情报分析从根本上讲是一种在不确定条件下进行的专家判断的实践。这些判断被用来为重要决策提供信息。在导致 2003 年伊拉克战争的重大情报失误之后，情报机构在其评估中实施了沟通概率的政策。几乎所有机构都选择使用标准化的语言词汇来传达概率，其中有序的概率术语集（例如，极有可能）与数字范围（例如，80-90%）相关联。我们借鉴了关于概率沟通的心理学研究和检验标准化词汇有效性的研究，回顾了这种方法的优缺点。我们进一步讨论了如何使用数字概率来克服语言概率的许多缺点。数字概率并非没有缺点（例如，它们更难引出，并且可能会被计算能力差的接收者误解）。但是，通过培训和实践可以减轻这些缺点，而语言概率的缺陷是该方法所固有的。我们提出，总的来说，使用数字概率的好处超过了其缺点。鉴于情报失败带来的巨大代价，情报界应该重新考虑其对在情报评估中使用语言概率来传达概率的依赖。我们的讨论也对气候科学等其他领域的概率沟通具有启示意义。（PsycInfo 数据库记录（c）2021 APA，保留所有权利）。
