Middlesex University, London, NW4 4BT, UK.
Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto, ON M3K 2C9, Canada.
Trends Cogn Sci. 2022 Jun;26(6):514-526. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2022.03.002. Epub 2022 Apr 7.
Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g., likely) rather than numeric (e.g., 75% chance) probabilities, even in consequential domains, such as climate science. However, verbal probabilities can convey something other than uncertainty, and senders may exploit this. For instance, senders can maintain credibility after making erroneous predictions. While verbal probabilities afford ease of expression, they can be easily misunderstood, and the potential for miscommunication is not effectively mitigated by assigning (imprecise) numeric probabilities to words. When making consequential decisions, recipients prefer (precise) numeric probabilities.
在一个信息日益丰富但高度不确定的世界中，需要有一种有效的方法将不确定性传达给各种受众。发件人更愿意使用口头（例如，可能）而不是数字（例如，75%的机会）概率来表示不确定性，即使在气候科学等重要领域也是如此。然而，口头概率可能传达的不仅仅是不确定性，发件人可能会利用这一点。例如，发件人在做出错误预测后可以保持可信度。虽然口头概率易于表达，但它们很容易被误解，并且通过将（不精确）数字概率分配给单词来有效减轻潜在的误解的能力有限。在做出重要决策时，收件人更喜欢（精确）数字概率。
