心血管疾病风险预测的未来方向。
Future directions in cardiovascular disease risk prediction.
机构信息
BMBS, PhD, FRACGP, Clinical Professorial Research Fellow, Centre for Longitudinal and Life Course Research, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Qld.
MPH, PhD, Research Fellow, Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney Medical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, NSW.
出版信息
Aust J Gen Pract. 2020 Aug;49(8):488-494. doi: 10.31128/AJGP-02-20-5231.
BACKGROUND
Although the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (NVDPA) guidelines were published in 2012, many individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are not prescribed preventive medication or have CVD risk factors recorded. Better use of CVD risk prediction tools and targeting of medication could reduce CVD.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this article is to review recent developments in CVD risk prediction, including calculators developed in the USA, UK and New Zealand, and non-traditional tests for cardiovascular risk assessment.
DISCUSSION
The Framingham Risk Equation explains much of the risk variance in the population but overestimates risk for a contemporary Australian population. Newer risk calculators show improvement in calibration. Individuals vary greatly in terms of whether they will find the potential benefits of taking medication worthwhile, and shared decision-making tools can help to clarify decision making.
背景
尽管《国家血管疾病预防联盟指南》于 2012 年发布，但仍有许多心血管疾病（CVD）高危人群未被开具预防药物或记录 CVD 风险因素。更好地使用 CVD 风险预测工具和药物靶向治疗可能会降低 CVD 的发病率。
目的
本文旨在回顾 CVD 风险预测的最新进展，包括在美国、英国和新西兰开发的计算器，以及用于心血管风险评估的非传统检测。
讨论
弗雷明汉风险方程解释了人群中大部分的风险差异，但对当代澳大利亚人群的风险估计过高。新型风险计算器在校准方面有所改进。个体之间在是否认为服用药物的潜在益处值得付出存在很大差异，而共同决策工具可以帮助澄清决策。
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