Zhu Ying, Fang Xiongfeng, Wang Lanqing, Zhang Tao, Yu Dandan
Cancer Center, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, China.
School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China.
J Cancer. 2020 Jul 14;11(18):5527-5535. doi: 10.7150/jca.46563. eCollection 2020.
To identify associated risk factors and develop a predictive nomogram for the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients. A total of 4575 patients in the SEER cohort and 220 patients in the Chinese cohort diagnosed with metastatic gastric cancer in our Cancer Center were obtained. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk variables for early death. A predictive nomogram and a web-based probability calculator were developed and then validated by receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve and calibration plot in a Chinese cohort. Eight independent variables, including race, grade, surgery, chemotherapy, and metastases of bone, brain, liver, lung were recognized by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models for identifying independent risk variables of early death about metastatic gastric cancer patients. By comprising these variables, a predictive nomogram and a web-based probability calculator were constructed in the SEER cohort. Then, it could be validated well in the Chinese cohort by receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve and calibration plot. Using this nomogram model provided an insightful and applicable tool to distinguish the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients.
识别转移性胃癌患者早期死亡的相关危险因素并建立预测列线图。我们从监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）队列中获取了4575例转移性胃癌患者，并从我们癌症中心的中国队列中获取了220例转移性胃癌患者。采用单因素和多因素逻辑回归模型来识别早期死亡的独立风险变量。开发了一个预测列线图和一个基于网络的概率计算器，然后在中国队列中通过受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线和校准图进行验证。通过单因素和多因素逻辑回归模型识别转移性胃癌患者早期死亡的独立风险变量，确定了8个独立变量，包括种族、分级、手术、化疗以及骨、脑、肝、肺转移。通过纳入这些变量，在SEER队列中构建了一个预测列线图和一个基于网络的概率计算器。然后，通过受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线和校准图在中国队列中对其进行了良好的验证。使用该列线图模型为区分转移性胃癌患者的早期死亡提供了一个有见地且适用的工具。
