Professor Emeritus Department of Entomology, Michigan State University, Williamston, MI.
J Econ Entomol. 2020 Oct 16;113(5):2052-2060. doi: 10.1093/jee/toaa152.
During a trapping study interval, each target insect is either caught or not caught. Therefore, the current analysis treats trapping as a binomial process. Data from a binomial calculator, along with computer simulations of random walkers, documented that the inherent variance associated with estimates of absolute population density generated by a single catch number in a pheromone-baited monitoring trap becomes very high when catch probability averaged across the trap's sampling area falls below 0.02, as is the case for most insect trapping systems operating in the open field. The imprecision associated with interpretations of single catch numbers renders many current pest management decisions risky and unsatisfactory. Here we reinforce how single-trap, multiple-release experiments can and should be used to measure catch probability, plume reach, and trap sampling area. When catch probability lies in the danger zone below 0.02, steps are suggested for how multiple traps might be deployed to raise composite catch probability to a level where estimates of absolute pest density become reliable. Heat transfer is offered as an appropriate conceptual model for the mechanics of trapping. A call is made for a radical rethinking in the designs of insect monitoring traps in light of their significant current deficits highlighted by this study.
在诱捕研究期间，每个目标昆虫要么被捕到，要么没有被捕到。因此，目前的分析将诱捕视为二项式过程。来自二项式计算器的数据，以及随机游动者的计算机模拟，记录了当诱捕器的采样区域内的捕获概率平均低于 0.02 时，由单个诱捕器捕获数量生成的绝对种群密度估计值所产生的固有方差变得非常高，这是大多数在野外运行的昆虫诱捕系统的情况。由于单次捕获数量的解释不精确，许多当前的害虫管理决策变得具有风险和不满意。在这里，我们强调了如何使用单诱捕器、多次释放实验来测量捕获概率、羽流到达范围和诱捕器采样区域。当捕获概率处于 0.02 以下的危险区域时，我们建议采取措施，使用多个诱捕器来提高综合捕获概率，使其达到可以可靠估计绝对害虫密度的水平。热传递被提出作为捕捉机制的合适概念模型。鉴于本研究突出显示的当前显著缺陷，呼吁对昆虫监测诱捕器的设计进行彻底的重新思考。
