Rose B I, Lamb E J
Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Stanford University Medical Center, California.
Am J Perinatol. 1988 Jan;5(1):44-50. doi: 10.1055/s-2007-999652.
Most obstetricians share the belief that an estimate of gestational age based on several clinical measures that agree with one another is more accurate than an estimate based on a single measurement. This paper presents a formal justification for this belief by applying Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of a fetus being a certain gestational age by using information from several clinically established single predictors. The application of Bayes' theorem justifies the use of multiple measures of gestational age in individual ultrasound examinations and the use of serial ultrasound studies in the third trimester to more accurately estimate gestational age. The same technique could be applied to obstetric research studies that need to establish accurate gestational dating.
大多数产科医生都认为，基于多项相互一致的临床指标来估算孕周，比基于单一测量值的估算更为准确。本文通过应用贝叶斯定理，利用多个临床确定的单一预测指标的信息来计算胎儿处于特定孕周的概率，从而为这一观点提供了正式的依据。贝叶斯定理的应用证明了在个体超声检查中使用多种孕周测量方法以及在孕晚期使用系列超声研究来更准确地估算孕周的合理性。同样的技术也可应用于需要确定准确孕周的产科研究。
