Center for Primary Health Care Research, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.
Int J Law Psychiatry. 2020 Jul-Aug;71:101603. doi: 10.1016/j.ijlp.2020.101603. Epub 2020 Jun 30.
Sweden has in recent years witnessed increasing rates of firearm-related violence and homicide, which has contributed to increased rates of deadly violence. Attempts to profile offenders committing such crimes are of major importance, because such efforts may contribute to better preventive measures. We therefore aimed to study the characteristics of individuals convicted and/or suspected of homicide, attempted homicide, preparation to commit homicide as well as conspiration to commit homicide (for simplicity called homicide+) in Sweden.
By using information from the Swedish Crime Register and the Swedish Criminal Suspect Register, individuals being 15-60 years old and convicted and/or suspected of homicide+ between 2000 and 2015 were included in the study. Using these registers and also other population and health care registers, information on previous criminality, substance abuse, and psychiatric disorders were added to the Latent Class Analysis (LCA) that was used to identify latent classes of individuals convicted and/or suspected for homicide+. In addition, several individual variables were added for validation purposes.
A total of 14,466 individuals were included in the analysis. The majority were male (n = 12,802; 88.5%) and Swedish-born with Swedish-born parents (n = 8247; 57.0%). The LCA identified three classes where Conviction Class (CC) contained mostly convicted individuals whereas Mixed Class A (MCA) and Mixed Class B (MCB) contained almost equal rates of both convicted and suspected individuals. The CC was characterized by individuals with low rates of previous criminality, substance abuse and psychiatric disorders. The MCA and the MCB were characterized by individuals with higher rates of previous criminality, substance abuse, and psychiatric disorders as well as lower education and worse economy in comparison with the CC.
While MCA and MCB may be constituted by "traditional" criminals often well known by the police and/or the social authorities, the CC was mainly constituted by convicted offenders who may more easily escape the radar of the authorities.
近年来，瑞典目睹了与枪支有关的暴力和凶杀事件的发生率不断上升，这导致了致命暴力事件的发生率上升。对犯罪者进行侧写是非常重要的，因为这些努力可能有助于采取更好的预防措施。因此，我们旨在研究在瑞典被判犯有或涉嫌犯下凶杀罪、谋杀未遂、准备犯下凶杀罪以及共谋犯下凶杀罪（为简单起见，称为凶杀+）的个人的特征。
通过使用瑞典犯罪登记处和瑞典犯罪嫌疑人登记处的信息，我们将 2000 年至 2015 年间年龄在 15 至 60 岁之间、被判犯有或涉嫌犯有凶杀罪+的个人纳入研究。使用这些登记处以及其他人口和医疗保健登记处，我们将之前的犯罪行为、药物滥用和精神疾病的信息添加到潜类分析（LCA）中，用于确定被判犯有或涉嫌犯有凶杀罪+的个人的潜在类别。此外，还添加了几个个体变量以验证目的。
共纳入 14466 人进行分析。大多数人是男性（n=12802；88.5%），出生于瑞典且父母均为瑞典人（n=8247；57.0%）。LCA 确定了三个类别，其中定罪类别（CC）主要包含已定罪的个人，而混合类别 A（MCA）和混合类别 B（MCB）几乎包含相同比例的已定罪和涉嫌的个人。CC 的特点是个体之前的犯罪行为、药物滥用和精神疾病发生率较低。MCA 和 MCB 的特点是个体之前的犯罪行为、药物滥用和精神疾病发生率较高，教育程度较低，经济状况较差，与 CC 相比。
虽然 MCA 和 MCB 可能由警察和/或社会当局熟知的“传统”罪犯组成，但 CC 主要由可能更容易逃脱当局注意的已定罪罪犯组成。
