Bier Vicki
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
Risk Anal. 2020 Nov;40(S1):2207-2217. doi: 10.1111/risa.13583. Epub 2020 Aug 20.
In commemorating the 40th anniversary of Risk Analysis, this article takes a retrospective look at some of the ways in which decision analysis (as a "sibling field") has contributed to the development both of the journal, and of risk analysis as a field. I begin with some early foundational papers from the first decade of the journal's history. I then review a number of papers that have applied decision analysis to risk problems over the years, including applications of related methods such as influence diagrams, multicriteria decision analysis, and risk matrices. The article then reviews some recent trends, from roughly the last five years, and concludes with observations about the parallel evolution of risk analysis and decision analysis over the decades-especially with regard to the importance of representing multiple stakeholder perspectives, and the importance of behavioral realism in decision models. Overall, the extensive literature surveyed here supports the view that the incorporation of decision-analytic perspectives has improved the practice of risk analysis.
在纪念《风险分析》创刊40周年之际，本文回顾了决策分析（作为一个“姊妹领域”）对该期刊发展以及风险分析领域发展所做出贡献的一些方式。我首先从该期刊历史第一个十年的一些早期基础论文开始。然后，我回顾了多年来将决策分析应用于风险问题的一些论文，包括影响图、多准则决策分析和风险矩阵等相关方法的应用。本文接着回顾了大致过去五年的一些最新趋势，并以对几十年来风险分析和决策分析并行发展的观察作为结论——特别是关于呈现多个利益相关者观点的重要性以及决策模型中行为现实性的重要性。总体而言，这里所调查的大量文献支持这样一种观点，即纳入决策分析视角改进了风险分析的实践。
