Department of Biology, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, Maryland, United States of America.
Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, United States of America.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Aug 21;16(8):e1008136. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008136. eCollection 2020 Aug.
Management strategies for control of vector-borne diseases, for example Zika or dengue, include using larvicide and/or adulticide, either through large-scale application by truck or plane or through door-to-door efforts that require obtaining permission to access private property and spray yards. The efficacy of the latter strategy is highly dependent on the compliance of local residents. Here we develop a model for vector-borne disease transmission between mosquitoes and humans in a neighborhood setting, considering a network of houses connected via nearest-neighbor mosquito movement. We incorporate large-scale application of adulticide via aerial spraying through a uniform increase in vector death rates in all sites, and door-to-door application of larval source reduction and adulticide through a decrease in vector emergence rates and an increase in vector death rates in compliant sites only, where control efficacies are directly connected to real-world experimentally measurable control parameters, application frequencies, and control costs. To develop mechanistic insight into the influence of vector motion and compliance clustering on disease controllability, we determine the basic reproduction number R0 for the system, provide analytic results for the extreme cases of no mosquito movement, infinite hopping rates, and utilize degenerate perturbation theory for the case of slow but non-zero hopping rates. We then determine the application frequencies required for each strategy (alone and combined) in order to reduce R0 to unity, along with the associated costs. Cost-optimal strategies are found to depend strongly on mosquito hopping rates, levels of door-to-door compliance, and spatial clustering of compliant houses, and can include aerial spray alone, door-to-door treatment alone, or a combination of both. The optimization scheme developed here provides a flexible tool for disease management planners which translates modeling results into actionable control advice adaptable to system-specific details.
病媒传播疾病（例如 Zika 或登革热）的管理策略包括使用幼虫杀虫剂和/或成虫杀虫剂，无论是通过卡车或飞机大规模喷洒，还是通过挨家挨户的努力，这需要获得进入私人财产和喷洒院子的许可。后者策略的效果高度依赖于当地居民的遵守程度。在这里，我们在邻里环境中建立了蚊子和人类之间病媒传播的模型，考虑了通过最近邻居蚊子运动连接的房屋网络。我们通过在所有地点均匀增加矢量死亡率来纳入通过空中喷洒进行的成虫杀虫剂的大规模应用，并且通过减少矢量出现率和仅在遵守地点增加矢量死亡率来进行幼虫源减少和成虫杀虫剂的上门应用，其中控制效率直接与现实世界中可测量的控制参数、应用频率和控制成本相关联。为了深入了解病媒运动和遵守聚类对疾病可控性的影响，我们确定了系统的基本繁殖数 R0，为无蚊子运动、无穷大跳跃率的极端情况提供了分析结果，并利用退化微扰理论处理了缓慢但非零跳跃率的情况。然后，我们确定了每种策略（单独和组合）所需的应用频率，以便将 R0 降低到 1，以及相关成本。发现成本最优策略强烈依赖于蚊子跳跃率、上门治疗的遵守程度以及遵守房屋的空间聚类，并且可以包括单独使用空中喷洒、单独使用上门治疗，或者两者的组合。这里开发的优化方案为疾病管理规划者提供了一个灵活的工具，将建模结果转化为可操作的控制建议，适用于特定于系统的细节。
