Agusto F B, Bewick S, Fagan W F
Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, United States.
Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States.
Infect Dis Model. 2017 May 23;2(2):244-267. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.05.003. eCollection 2017 May.
Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper, we analyze a new system of ordinary differential equations which incorporates human vertical transmission of Zika virus, the birth of babies with microcephaly and asymptomatically infected individuals. The Zika model is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the is less than unity. Our model shows that asymptomatic individuals amplify the disease burden in the community, and the most important parameters for ZIKV spread are the death rate of mosquitoes, the mosquito biting rate, the mosquito recruitment rate, and the transmission contact to mosquitoes and to adult humans. Scenario exploration indicates that personal-protection is a more effective control strategy than mosquito-reduction strategy. It also shows that delaying conception reduces the number of microcephaly cases, although this does little to prevent Zika transmission in the broader community. However, by coupling aggressive vector control and personal protection use, it is possible to reduce both microcephaly and Zika transmission. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 92B05, 93A30, 93C15.
寨卡病毒是一种黄病毒，可通过受感染蚊子叮咬或性传播传染给人类。寨卡病毒与小头畸形等先天性异常有关。在本文中，我们分析了一个新的常微分方程组，该方程组纳入了寨卡病毒的人类垂直传播、小头畸形婴儿的出生以及无症状感染者。当[此处缺失条件，无法准确翻译，推测原文应为某个参数]小于1时，寨卡模型是局部和全局渐近稳定的。我们的模型表明，无症状个体增加了社区中的疾病负担，寨卡病毒传播的最重要参数是蚊子的死亡率、蚊子叮咬率、蚊子繁殖率以及蚊子与成年人类之间的传播接触率。情景探索表明，个人防护是比减少蚊子数量更有效的控制策略。研究还表明，推迟怀孕可减少小头畸形病例的数量，尽管这对在更广泛社区预防寨卡病毒传播作用不大。然而，通过结合积极的病媒控制和个人防护措施，有可能减少小头畸形和寨卡病毒传播。2000数学主题分类：92B05、93A30、93C15。
